- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 71-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 71-72 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -105 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -115 | -135 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+11.78 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.54 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.26 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.20 Units / 73% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 23 games (+17.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+2.15 Units / 9% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 68-75 against the Run Line (-10.3 Units / -5.83% ROI).
- 71-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.85 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 65-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.25 Units / -9.69% ROI
- 73-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 0.98% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 71-72 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -6.16% ROI).
- 73-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -1.47% ROI
- 76-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.5 Units / 6.06% ROI
- 60-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -15.5% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 9% (5/55) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (51/300) against Clarke Schmidt since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (73/408) versus Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .146 (12-for-82) against Kutter Crawford’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 97th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (180/350) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (107 Total Bases / 181 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .407 — first Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown his slider 48% of the time (300/622) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 16-15 (.516) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees are 56-32 (.636) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Yankees are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 1-62 (.016) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are 42-29 (.592) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Red Sox are just 30-40 (.429) after a loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .374 (637 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Red Sox are batting .187 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Yankees pitchers have walked 5 of 109 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.53 (98.0 IP) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 51 of 467 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8 of 46 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (336.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D10
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): UCL tear, D10
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