- The Red Sox are -155 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Watch the game on TBS
The New York Yankees (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 71-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 72-71 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -155 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+14.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+11.78 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.54 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+6.26 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.20 Units / 73% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 23 games (+17.95 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+2.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 37 games at home (+1.30 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 130 games (+0.40 Units / 0% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 68-75 against the Run Line (-10.3 Units / -5.84% ROI).
- 71-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -6.8% ROI
- 65-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 73-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 0.85% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 72-71 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -5.07% ROI).
- 73-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -2.43% ROI
- 77-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.5 Units / 6.65% ROI
- 60-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.3 Units / -16.09% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (461/916) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (82/245) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 30% (278 SO in 914 PAs) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .241 (21-for-87) against Carlos Rodon on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (146 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .840 (137 Total Bases / 163 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .588 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 30% (150 SO in 494 PAs) this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 67% of Kutter Crawford’s pitches (369/552) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 56-32 (.636) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Yankees are just 3-56 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 105-28 (.789) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are just 3-128 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 30-40 (.429) after a loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Red Sox are just 12-18 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 9 of 46 batters (20%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 27 of 210 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,910 times since last season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- Oswald Peraza (Yankees): Knee, Day-to-Day
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
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