- The Yankees are + favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees starting pitcher: Michael King
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+) on Thursday, September 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 73-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 72-73 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | + + | O + | + |
| Red Sox | + + | U + | + |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+9.10 Units / 152% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 45% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Michael King | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+15.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 70-75 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 65-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.2 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 75-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 2.09% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -6.07% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 5.32% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.3 Units / -14.59% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .167 (22-for-132) against Michael King this season — 10th best among in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 90th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .171 (34-for-199) against Michael King since last season — 5th best among in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (30-for-102) against Michael King’s elevated fastball since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (18/93) against Michael King on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 10th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .384 (33-for-86) against Tanner Houck on fastballs away since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (97/173) against Tanner Houck in non-two strike counts this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (51 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .379 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (32/51) against Tanner Houck on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Yankees are 48-15 (.762) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 56-32 (.636) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are just 3-128 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are 59-11 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Red Sox are just 30-40 (.429) after a loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8 of 45 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .267 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.11 (1026.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 47 of 444 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Covid-19, D7
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
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