- The – are favorites vs the –
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Watch the game on Peacock
The New York Yankees () visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds () on Sunday, May 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am EDT in Cincinnati.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Yankees vs Reds Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 28-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 25-20 ATS.
Yankees vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | O | ||
| Reds | U |
Yankees vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 64.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Yankees vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 46 games (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 76% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+16.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+14.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
Reds vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Willie Calhoun | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+3.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games at home (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 27-21 against the Run Line (+6.85 Units / 12.02% ROI).
- 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 8.23% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -10.17% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 1.41% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 25-20 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 6.41% ROI).
- 19-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -8.9% ROI
- 24-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 2.76% ROI
- 21-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -11.17% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
80% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (72-for-368) against Luis Severino since last season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 95th Percentile.
Luis Severino’s highest spin rate on two-strike changeups since last season is 1818.0 RPM — 8th fewest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 2211.0
69% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low since last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 96th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .485 (33-for-68) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 621 fastballs at 100+ MPH since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 139 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (130/375) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Yankees are 24-38 (.387) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees are 9-7 (.562) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 28-27 (.509) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Reds are just 17-44 (.279) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Reds are just 66-6 (.917) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Reds are 7-17 (.292) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Reds are just 21-32 (.396) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .651.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,972 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .217 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 68% at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .424 since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have won just 17% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .212 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Reds are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 42% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees have won 42% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .316 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .358 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Reds pitchers have walked 773 of 7,973 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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