Baylor averaged 85.3 points in its 22 regular-season games this season, ranking second nationally to Gonzaga (92.9). While the Bears’ scoring average has plummeted in the NCAA Tournament (and the two games prior in the Big 12 Tournament), bettors are expecting a high-scoring game in the national championship.
Gonzaga hit the over in Saturday’s win over UCLA but hasn’t been a strong over team this season. They hit the over in 13 of 24 regular-season games but have done so in only three of their last seven games. Baylor also hit the over in Saturday’s win and enters Monday with 18 overs in 29 games, ranking seventh among all teams for most over wins this season.
In a matchup of the highest-ranked KenPom offenses, the national championship total opened at 160 but has dropped to 159.5, as the public pounded the over. As of Monday morning, 60 percent of over/under tickets have been placed on the over, accounting for 84 percent of the handle.
Even with the half-point drop, the total is still four points higher than the total (155.5) for their December matchup that was canceled because of COVID-19 issues. And Gonzaga was a 2.5-point favorite in a game, ironically, scheduled to be played in Indianapolis. Four months later, the Bulldogs opened as a 5-point favorite and, also as of Monday morning, sit at -4.5 as bettors prefer the Zags over Baylor, albeit by slim margins.
Here’s a full ticket and handle breakdown for national championship betting:
|Spread||50% on Gonzaga||56% on Gonzaga|
|Total||60% on Over||84% On Over|
Also of note, Drew Timme leads all players in tickets and handle in Most Oustanding Player betting. At 37 percent and 64 percent, respectively, the Bulldogs’ All-American forward is the only player who’s received more than 14 percent of the tickets and 13 percent of the handle. And no Baylor player is earning more than 4 percent of the tickets and 3 percent of the handle (Davion Mitchell).
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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of High Motor by BetMGM, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. He has written for Sports Illustrated, HERO Sports, Bleacher Report, and SB Nation. Follow him on Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM