- The Diamondbacks are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 13-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 19-14 ATS.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 9 +100 | +125 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -120 | -155 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+6.25 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+8.15 Units / 163% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +125 |
| Ryne Nelson | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 59% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 20-13 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 14.65% ROI).
- 13-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 6.21% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -15.08% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 7.19% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-14 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 10.08% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.95 Units / 20.54% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 4.39% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -12.69% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 60% (76/126) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 62% (98/159) against Graham Ashcraft in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 75% of the time (604/801) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has not allowed a walk in his last 78 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 18th, 2022 — Yimi Garcia has the longest active streak at 85.
Ryne Nelson has not walked any of the 74 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 27% (19 SO in 70 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .306 (19-for-62) against Ryne Nelson when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .199 — second Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are just 23-110 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 117-13 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 0-10 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Nationals are just 60-118 (.337) when underdogs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 104-33 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Diamondbacks are just 117-23 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 33-26 (.559) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-29 (.310) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.60 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Nationals hitters have just 57 strikeouts in 377 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 71 extra-base hits out of 295 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have put 44% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 3% of PA’s since last season (197/7,182) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 154 strikeouts in 809 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Jeimer Candelario (Nationals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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