- The Marlins are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 18-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-26 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -105 | +140 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -115 | -165 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+11.60 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 34 games (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 66% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+7.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+2.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 26-15 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 19.38% ROI).
- 18-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 15.37% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -13.35% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 5.4% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 15-26 against the Run Line (-17.55 Units / -31.34% ROI).
- 20-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -2.55% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -13.46% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 4.75% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
9 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
9 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
9 of Josiah Gray’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (32%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 14 of 105 left-handed batters (13%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 16th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .490 (51 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .307 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (23/130) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (28/75) against Jesus Luzardo when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
78% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts are inside this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 72-111 (.393) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 22-38 (.367) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 73-130 (.360) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 1-120 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 63-17 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Marlins are just 1-19 (.050) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Marlins are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Marlins are just 45-58 (.437) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 56 extra-base hits out of 238 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 361 total hits (just 25%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .340 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 39 double plays in 249 opportunities (16%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Marlins hitters have 430 strikeouts in 1,617 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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