- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams, 0.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer, 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Port St Lucie.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 1-3 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 10.5 +100 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -120 | -200 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 70.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tres Barrera has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.10 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Patrick Mazeika has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 81 away games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -2.94% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -15% ROI
- 0-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
- 4-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -49.55% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -61.32% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 45.45% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -51.69% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% (645/1,222) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (668/757) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (1,087/1,222) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit .444 (8-for-18) against Trevor Williams over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .224 (647 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .195 (227-for-1,167) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 96th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .233 (790 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer walked 7 of 306 right-handed batters (2%) last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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