- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 33-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 33-48 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -105 | +180 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -115 | -225 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 81.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+19.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 41 games (+18.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.60 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+15.45 Units / 97% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+12.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 41 away games (+16.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 away games (+14.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 away games (+3.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-35 against the Run Line (+6.7 Units / 6.75% ROI).
- 33-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 5.68% ROI
- 37-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.91% ROI
- 40-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 33-48 against the Run Line (-21.9 Units / -21.42% ROI).
- 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.37% ROI
- 30-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.35 Units / -20.59% ROI
- 44-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 12.56% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .105 (8-for-76) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .132 (10 Total Bases / 76 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (122/421) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .150 (21 Total Bases / 140 ABs) on elevated fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .514 (19-for-37) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — first Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (167/396) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,155/2,713) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (573/1,329) when behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 1-142 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Nationals are just 87-134 (.394) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 88-155 (.362) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 33-3 (.917) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Phillies are 62-31 (.667) after a win as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Phillies are 8-5 (.615) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Phillies are 21-89 (.191) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 126 walks in 2,017 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,205 strikeouts in 6,068 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 192 strikeouts in 1,026 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .500 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .254 since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Phillies are batting .284 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 50 of 715 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 24 of 420 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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