- The Nationals are -105 favorites vs the Royals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Washington Nationals (-105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-115) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Nationals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Nationals vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 21-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 19-32 ATS.
Nationals vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +150 | O 9 +100 | -105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -120 | -115 |
Nationals vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.20 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+10.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.10 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Royals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Royals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Edward Olivares | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Royals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games (+8.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 away games (+4.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 39 games (+3.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 31-19 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 16.68% ROI).
- 21-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 6.92% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.37% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 19-32 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -28.98% ROI).
- 15-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -30.62% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -10.28% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 1.25% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has walked 10 of 246 batters (4%) this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has struck out just 13% (27/210) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (69/357) against Patrick Corbin this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 4% (3 SO in 71 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 9.89 (23.2 IP) on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.20 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of 1.345 (52 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .700 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .786 (66 Total Bases / 84 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .418 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (25/84) against Jordan Lyles this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Nationals are just 19-3 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Nationals are just 24-117 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Nationals are just 26-45 (.366) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 12-23 (.343) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Royals are just 5-58 (.079) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Royals are just 3-7 (.300) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .680.
The Royals are just 7-19 (.269) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Royals are just 1-17 (.056) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 122 extra-base hits out of 451 total hits (just 27%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 357 strikeouts in 1,878 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,398 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 27% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .276 (911 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 60 of 449 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Royals have won just 0% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .331 against Royals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Royals have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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