76ers vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 01, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The 76ers (39-21) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat (33-29)
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSUN & NBCS-PH

The Philadelphia 76ers visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The 76ers vs Heat Over/Under is 215.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the 76ers are 35-25 against the spread, while the Heat are 23-37 against the spread.


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76ers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Philadelphia 76ers+1.5 -105O 215.5 -110+105
Miami Heat -1.5 -115U 215.5 -110-130

Heat vs 76ers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 76ers will win Wednesday‘s game with 56.1% confidence.

Heat vs 76ers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the 76ers will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 54.5% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the 76ers and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games (+13.54 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have covered the Spread in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.06 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 55 games (+8.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+13.96 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+11.68 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.57 Units / 49% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the 76ers have gone 35-25 (+7.45 Units / 11.28% ROI).

  • 39-21 against the Moneyline (-2.75 Units / -1.85% ROI)
  • 33-27 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 5% ROI)
  • 27-33 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -14.09% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 23-37 (-17.7 Units / -25.95% ROI).

  • 33-29 against the Moneyline (-14.7 Units / -12.4% ROI)
  • 27-34 against the Over for game total points (-10.4 Units / -15.25% ROI)
  • 34-27 against the Under for game total points (+4.3 Units / 6.31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 98 games (-26.65 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 62 games (-22.95 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 20 of their last 52 games (-22.53 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 65 games (-22.30 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (-20.60 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 90 games (-28.77 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 78 games (-25.04 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 79 games (-22.96 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 66 games (-21.73 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 66 games (-17.85 Units / -20% ROI)

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Philadelphia 76ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The 76ers are 25-8 (.758) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The 76ers are 24-4 (.857) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The 76ers are 12-7 (.632) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The 76ers are 76-40 (.650) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia 76ers

The Heat are 15-5 (.750) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .529

The Heat are 32-16 (.667) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .496

The Heat are 86-24 (.782) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .678

The Heat are 28-13 (.683) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Injury Report: Heat vs. 76ersWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 1

  • Max Strus (Heat): Strus is questionable for Wednesday’s (Mar 1) game against Philadelphia.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is OUT for Wednesday’s (Mar 1) game against Philadelphia.
  • Kevin Love (Heat): Love is probable for Wednesday’s (Mar 1) game against Philadelphia.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic has been out since Dec. 26 and remains without a timetable for return.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Yurtseven is making progress. His ankle is fully healed and the hope is that he’s able to return after the All-Star break, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (76ers): Dedmon is out for Wednesday’s (Mar. 1) game against Miami.

Philadelphia 76ers Offensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have a 30% free throw rate (2,529 free throw attempts/8,534 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The 76ers have averaged 1.36 points per shot (2,825 points/2,080 shots) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The 76ers have averaged 1.32 points per shot (23,156 points/17,581 shots) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The 76ers are shooting 37% from three (102/273) in close and late situations this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.9 points per game (2,852 points/55 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0

The Heat have averaged 108.6 points per game (5,975 points/55 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Heat have averaged 108.2 points per game (3,029 points/28 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 112.8

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,159/4,764) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Philadelphia 76ers Defensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,691 rebounds/53 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The 76ers have averaged 8.2 steals per game (1,702 steals/207 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The 76ers have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (4,461 rebounds/135 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The 76ers have averaged 8.5 steals per game (889 steals/105 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (425 blocks/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (160 blocks/55 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (357 blocks/105 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (203 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.