Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks (26-14) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Hawks (19-21)
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5 points
  • Wednesday, January 11, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSE & BSWI

The Milwaukee Bucks visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Atlanta.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Bucks vs Hawks Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 21-17 against the spread, while the Hawks are 16-23 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks-4.5 -110O 228.5 -110-190
Atlanta Hawks +4.5 -110U 228.5 -110+155

Hawks vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Wednesday‘s game with 58.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 54.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bucks and Hawks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 63 games (+21.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 55 of their last 91 games (+16.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 52 games (+14.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+12.99 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+16.77 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 44 games at home (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have covered the 2Q Spread in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.44 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 21-17 (+2.3 Units / 5.23% ROI).

  • 26-14 against the Moneyline (-1.05 Units / -1.08% ROI)
  • 20-20 against the Over for game total points (-2 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 20-20 against the Under for game total points (-2 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 16-23 (-9.3 Units / -21.14% ROI).

  • 19-21 against the Moneyline (-11.3 Units / -15.61% ROI)
  • 23-17 against the Over for game total points (+4.3 Units / 9.77% ROI)
  • 17-23 against the Under for game total points (-8.3 Units / -18.86% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 38 of their last 85 games (-26.27 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 74 games (-26.12 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 90 games (-24.79 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 82 games (-23.16 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 89 games (-17.35 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 87 games (-37.20 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 20 of their last 63 games (-27.35 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 91 games (-25.37 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 78 games (-22.84 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 54 games (-20.67 Units / -33% ROI)

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Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Bucks are 35-11 (.761) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Bucks are 35-23 (.603) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505

The Bucks are 48-20 (.706) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

The Bucks are 52-23 (.693) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Hawks are 21-14 (.600) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Hawks are 17-4 (.810) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .606

The Hawks are 15-19 (.441) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

The Hawks are 50-26 (.658) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

Injury Report: Hawks vs. BucksWednesday‘s Game, Jan. 11

  • Clint Capela (Hawks): Capela is OUT for Wednesday’s (Jan. 11) game against Milwaukee.
  • Khris Middleton (Bucks): Middleton hasn’t played since Dec. 15 against Memphis. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Serge Ibaka (Bucks): Ibaka is OUT for Wednesday’s (Jan 11) game against Atlanta.

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have an eFG% of 52% this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Bucks have averaged 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (154 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.6

The Bucks have averaged 1.16 points per shot (532 points/460 shots) on the road this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

The Bucks have averaged 19.8 points in the paint per game (238 points/12 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks are shooting 28% from three (49/178) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Hawks are shooting 29% from three (62/210) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Hawks have averaged 1.21 points per shot (1,497 points/1,235 shots) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Hawks have made 9.5 three-pointers per game this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (3,441 rebounds/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8

The Bucks have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,165 rebounds/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Bucks have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (456 rebounds/12 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Bucks have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (405 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (450 rebounds/13 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Hawks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (667 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,170 steals/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (558 steals/83 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.