- The Bucks (58-24) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Heat (44-38)
- Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
- Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Milwaukee Bucks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami.
The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is 219.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 44-35 against the spread, while the Heat are 33-51 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Milwaukee Bucks | -5.5 -110 | O 219.5 -110 | -225 |
Miami Heat | +5.5 -110 | U 219.5 -110 | +180 |
Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Saturday‘s game with 64.1% confidence.
Heat vs Bucks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bucks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 77 games (+17.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+16.37 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 47 away games (+13.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 38 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+16.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 54 of their last 88 games (+15.87 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+13.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+8.93 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 44-35 (+5.5 Units / 5.95% ROI).
- 59-25 against the Moneyline (+9.9 Units / 3.97% ROI)
- 43-41 against the Over for game total points (-2.1 Units / -2.27% ROI)
- 41-43 against the Under for game total points (-6.3 Units / -6.82% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 33-51 (-23.1 Units / -24.41% ROI).
- 46-40 against the Moneyline (-14.5 Units / -8.71% ROI)
- 42-43 against the Over for game total points (-5.3 Units / -5.6% ROI)
- 43-42 against the Under for game total points (-3.2 Units / -3.38% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 35 of their last 92 games (-25.50 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 98 games (-22.70 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 93 games (-21.25 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 100 games (-21.18 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 100 games (-20.40 Units / -18% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 41 of their last 86 games (-29.94 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 94 games (-27.90 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 90 games (-27.57 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 77 games (-25.80 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 38 of their last 94 games (-23.75 Units / -23% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are 54-9 (.857) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
The Milwaukee Bucks are 87-22 (.798) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 49.8 rebounds per game (8,164 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — fifth-lowest among NBA teams.
The Bucks are 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466
The Bucks are 32-11 (.744) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565
The Heat are 54-8 (.871) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .768
The Heat are 30-7 (.811) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .771
The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721
Injury Report: Heat vs. Bucks – Saturday‘s Game, Apr. 22
- Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is questionable for Saturday’s (Apr.22) game against Milwaukee.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic hasn’t played since Dec. 26 against Minnesota and remains without a timetable to return.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Antetokounmpo is questionable for Saturday’s (Apr. 22) game against Miami.
- Wesley Matthews (Bucks): Matthews is OUT for Saturday’s (Apr. 22) game against Miami.
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 1.7 second chance points per game (102 points/61 games) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7
The Bucks averaged 120.1 points per game (8,649 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8
The Bucks shot 39% from three (1,038/2,669) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%
The Bucks have averaged 116.9 points per game (9,589 points/82 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4
The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1
The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4
The Heat have averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (419 points/82 games) in the second half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 39.3 defensive rebounds per game (9,265 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9
The Bucks have averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Bucks have averaged 39.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,415 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.7
The Bucks have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (729 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (394 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
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