- The Bucks (58-24) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat (44-38)
- Total (Over/Under): 216.5 points
- Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Milwaukee Bucks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami.
The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).
The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 44-36 against the spread, while the Heat are 34-51 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Milwaukee Bucks | -7.5 -115 | O 218.5 -110 | -350 |
Miami Heat | +7.5 -105 | U 218.5 -110 | +275 |
Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Monday‘s game with 64.0% confidence.
Heat vs Bucks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bucks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+17.37 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 78 games (+16.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+11.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 away games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 55 of their last 89 games (+16.87 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+15.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+14.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+7.83 Units / 9% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 44-36 (+4.4 Units / 4.71% ROI).
- 59-26 against the Moneyline (+8.6 Units / 3.43% ROI)
- 44-41 against the Over for game total points (-1.1 Units / -1.18% ROI)
- 41-44 against the Under for game total points (-7.4 Units / -7.91% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 34-51 (-22.1 Units / -23.08% ROI).
- 47-40 against the Moneyline (-13.4 Units / -8% ROI)
- 43-43 against the Over for game total points (-4.3 Units / -4.49% ROI)
- 43-43 against the Under for game total points (-4.3 Units / -4.49% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 36 of their last 93 games (-24.50 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 94 games (-22.35 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-21.70 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 95 games (-19.15 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 100 games (-19.07 Units / -17% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 41 of their last 87 games (-31.14 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 91 games (-28.72 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 87 games (-28.32 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 78 games (-24.80 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 94 games (-21.70 Units / -21% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are 54-9 (.857) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
The Milwaukee Bucks are 87-22 (.798) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 49.8 rebounds per game (8,164 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — fifth-lowest among NBA teams.
The Bucks are 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466
The Bucks are 32-11 (.744) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565
The Heat are 54-8 (.871) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .768
The Heat are 30-7 (.811) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .771
The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721
Injury Report: Heat vs. Bucks – Monday‘s Game, Apr. 24
- Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is questionable for Monday’s (Apr. 24) game against Milwaukee.
- Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is expected to miss about 4-6 weeks, according to Chris Haynes of Turner Sports.
- Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is probable for Monday’s (Apr. 24) game against Milwaukee.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic hasn’t played since Dec. 26 against Minnesota and remains without a timetable to return.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Antetokounmpo is questionable for Monday’s (Apr. 24) game against Miami.
- Wesley Matthews (Bucks): Matthews is out for Monday’s (Apr. 24) game against Miami.
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 1.7 second chance points per game (102 points/61 games) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7
The Bucks averaged 120.1 points per game (8,649 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8
The Bucks shot 39% from three (1,038/2,669) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%
The Bucks have averaged 116.9 points per game (9,589 points/82 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4
The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1
The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4
The Heat have averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (419 points/82 games) in the second half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 39.3 defensive rebounds per game (9,265 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9
The Bucks have averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Bucks have averaged 39.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,415 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.7
The Bucks have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (729 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (394 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
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