Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 12, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (22-20) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Bucks (27-14)
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Thursday, January 12, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSUN & BSWI

The Milwaukee Bucks visit FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is 211.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 22-17 against the spread, while the Heat are 16-24 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks+6.5 -115O 211.5 -115+190
Miami Heat -6.5 -105U 211.5 -115-250

Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 54.8% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 53.2% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bucks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 64 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 92 games (+17.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+15.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.99 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+12.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.28 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 61 of their last 100 games (+13.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games (+10.91 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.89 Units / 15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 22-17 (+3.3 Units / 7.32% ROI).

  • 27-14 against the Moneyline (-0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI)
  • 20-21 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -6.87% ROI)
  • 21-20 against the Under for game total points (-1 Units / -2.22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 16-24 (-10.4 Units / -22.51% ROI).

  • 22-20 against the Moneyline (-14.3 Units / -17.81% ROI)
  • 19-22 against the Over for game total points (-5.2 Units / -11.26% ROI)
  • 22-19 against the Under for game total points (+1.1 Units / 2.38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 100 games (-26.73 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-21.70 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 45 games (-21.40 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 72 games (-20.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 32 games (-19.13 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 88 games (-36.20 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 92 games (-26.81 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 21 of their last 64 games (-26.35 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 55 games (-21.87 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 31 of their last 79 games (-21.84 Units / -25% ROI)

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Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Bucks are 35-11 (.761) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Bucks are 35-23 (.603) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505

The Bucks are 48-20 (.706) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

The Bucks are 52-23 (.693) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Heat vs. BucksThursday‘s Game, Jan. 12

  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is out for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is questionable for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is probable for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is out for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is out for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is questionable for Thursday’s (Jan. 12) game against Milwaukee.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
  • Khris Middleton (Bucks): Middleton hasn’t played since Dec. 15 against Memphis. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Serge Ibaka (Bucks): Ibaka did not play in Wednesday’s (Jan 11) game against Atlanta.

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have an eFG% of 52% this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Bucks have averaged 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (154 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.6

The Bucks have averaged 1.16 points per shot (532 points/460 shots) on the road this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

The Bucks have averaged 19.8 points in the paint per game (238 points/12 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (3,441 rebounds/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8

The Bucks have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,165 rebounds/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Bucks have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (456 rebounds/12 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Bucks have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (405 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.