- The Heat (23-20) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Bucks (27-15)
- Total (Over/Under): 212.5 points
- Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 1:00pm EST
- Watch the game on ABC & ABC
The Milwaukee Bucks visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Bucks vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 22-18 against the spread, while the Heat are 17-24 against the spread.
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Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Heat vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Saturday‘s game with 55.4% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 55.4% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bucks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Bucks Team Prop Bets for Tonight, Ranked by Units Won:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 44 of their last 65 games (+20.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 92 games (+17.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.34 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.86 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 43% ROI)
Heat Team Prop Bets for Tonight, Ranked by Units Won:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+12.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 71 games (+11.91 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+8.78 Units / 13% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 22-18 (+2.2 Units / 4.76% ROI).
- 27-15 against the Moneyline (-1.05 Units / -1.05% ROI)
- 20-22 against the Over for game total points (-4.2 Units / -9.09% ROI)
- 22-20 against the Under for game total points (+0 Units / 0% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 17-24 (-9.4 Units / -19.87% ROI).
- 23-20 against the Moneyline (-13.3 Units / -16.1% ROI)
- 19-23 against the Over for game total points (-6.3 Units / -13.32% ROI)
- 23-19 against the Under for game total points (+2.1 Units / 4.44% ROI)
Negative Value Trends Against the Spread for the Heat, Ranked by Units Lost:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 97 games (-25.29 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 73 games (-21.50 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.70 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 46 games (-20.40 Units / -39% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 93 games (-19.00 Units / -18% ROI)
Negative Value Trends Against the Spread for the Bucks, Ranked by Units Lost:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 89 games (-37.20 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 21 of their last 65 games (-27.45 Units / -38% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 92 games (-26.69 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 31 of their last 80 games (-22.90 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-20.87 Units / -32% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks are 35-11 (.761) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547
The Bucks are 35-23 (.603) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505
The Bucks are 48-20 (.706) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562
The Bucks are 52-23 (.693) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744
The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510
Injury Report: Heat vs. Bucks – Saturday‘s Game, Jan. 14
- Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is probable for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Milwaukee.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
- Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is probable for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Milwaukee.
- Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Milwaukee.
- Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
- Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is out for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Milwaukee.
- Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
- Grayson Allen (Bucks): Allen did not play in Thursday’s game (Jan. 12).
- Khris Middleton (Bucks): Middleton hasn’t played since Dec. 15 against Memphis. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Antetokounmpo is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Miami.
- Serge Ibaka (Bucks): Ibaka is out for Saturday’s (Jan.14) game against Miami.
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have an eFG% of 52% this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Bucks have averaged 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (154 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.6
The Bucks have averaged 1.16 points per shot (532 points/460 shots) on the road this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26
The Bucks have averaged 19.8 points in the paint per game (238 points/12 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7
The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0
The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%
The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (3,441 rebounds/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8
The Bucks have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,165 rebounds/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1
The Bucks have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (456 rebounds/12 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3
The Bucks have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (405 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
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