Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (25-13) are -6.5 favorites vs. the Cavaliers (25-14)
  • Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
  • Friday, January 6, 2023 at 9:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT & BSOH

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Cavaliers vs Nuggets Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Cavaliers are 18-17 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 19-19 against the spread.


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Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cleveland Cavaliers+5.5 -110O 220.5 -115+180
Denver Nuggets -5.5 -110U 220.5 -115-225

Nuggets vs Cavaliers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 64.5% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Cavaliers will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 52.8% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cavaliers and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.21 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.13 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+6.94 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.42 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 52 of their last 83 games (+17.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Cavaliers have gone 18-17 (-0.7 Units / -1.63% ROI).

  • 25-14 against the Moneyline (+5.05 Units / 6.39% ROI)
  • 18-21 against the Over for game total points (-5.1 Units / -11.89% ROI)
  • 21-18 against the Under for game total points (+1.2 Units / 2.8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 19-19 (-1.9 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 25-13 against the Moneyline (+5.15 Units / 5.6% ROI)
  • 19-19 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 19-19 against the Under for game total points (-1.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 89 games (-29.34 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 35 of their last 75 games (-25.93 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 86 games (-20.00 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 84 games (-19.63 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 86 games (-19.20 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 35 away games (-23.30 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 84 games (-19.74 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 73 games (-19.65 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 65 games (-18.27 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-17.90 Units / -20% ROI)

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Cleveland Cavaliers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Cavaliers are 10-9 (.526) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

The Cavaliers are 27-30 (.474) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Cavaliers are 25-37 (.403) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .455

The Cavaliers are 14-63 (.182) when allowing 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .308

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. CavaliersFriday‘s Game, Jan. 6

  • Peyton Watson (Nuggets): Watson did not play in Thursday’s game (Jan. 5).
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is dealing with fractured left hand and sprained finger and will be re-evaluated in a month, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Dean Wade (Cavaliers): The Cavaliers announced that Wade has an AC joint sprain and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks
  • Darius Garland (Cavaliers): The Cavaliers have listed Garland as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Nuggets.
  • Ricky Rubio (Cavaliers): Rubio will miss the start of the season as he recovers from a left ACL tear.
  • Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers): The Cavaliers have listed Mitchell as OUT for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Nuggets.
  • Dylan Windler (Cavaliers): The Cavaliers announced that Windler will miss another 4-6 weeks.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers averaged 102.5 points per game (7,379 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

The Cavaliers are shooting 43% from three (91/211) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Cavaliers are shooting 40% from three (170/426) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Cavaliers have averaged 1.38 points per shot (929 points/675 shots) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Cleveland Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers have averaged 5.6 steals per game (73 steals/13 games) this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Cavaliers have averaged 34.1 defensive rebounds per game (443 rebounds/13 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Cavaliers have averaged 7.2 steals per game (1,188 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Cavaliers have averaged 6.8 steals per game (640 steals/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.