Celtics vs Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics (46-21) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Hawks (34-33)
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5 points
  • Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSE & NBCS-BOS

The Boston Celtics visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Atlanta.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).

The Celtics vs Hawks Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 35-31 against the spread, while the Hawks are 30-36 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-5.5 -105O 237.5 -110-200
Atlanta Hawks +5.5 -115U 237.5 -110+165

Hawks vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Saturday‘s game with 61.1% confidence.

Hawks vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.6% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Celtics and Hawks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 72 games (+31.89 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 59 of their last 100 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games (+11.77 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 49 of their last 86 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.29 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 35-31 (+0.9 Units / 1.22% ROI).

  • 46-21 against the Moneyline (-17.2 Units / -7.81% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 30-36 (-9.6 Units / -13.03% ROI).

  • 34-33 against the Moneyline (-12.55 Units / -10.46% ROI)
  • 38-29 against the Over for game total points (+6.1 Units / 8.28% ROI)
  • 29-38 against the Under for game total points (-12.8 Units / -17.37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 38 of their last 90 games (-31.46 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 62 games (-28.39 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 62 games (-22.20 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 87 games (-20.24 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 78 games (-18.41 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 76 games (-41.24 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 41 games (-27.30 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 44 of their last 88 games (-24.90 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (-23.99 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.49 Units / -21% ROI)

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Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Boston Celtics are 28-5 (.848) when winning the rebounding margin this season — third-best among NBA teams. The Brooklyn Nets have averaged 40.0 rebounds per game (2,360 rebounds/59 games) this season — second-lowest among NBA teams.

The Boston Celtics are 67-16 (.807) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Brooklyn Nets have averaged 42.6 rebounds per game (6,000 rebounds/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Celtics are 20-7 (.741) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

The Celtics are 20-10 (.667) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .513

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Atlanta Hawks are 4-12 (.250) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 10th-worst among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers has shot 37% from three (764/2,044) this season — eighth-best among NBA teams.

The Atlanta Hawks are 48-26 (.649) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th-best among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,939 turnovers/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for seventh-highest among NBA teams.

The Hawks are 58-11 (.841) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .780

The Hawks are 24-26 (.480) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Injury Report: Hawks vs. CelticsSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • Atlanta Hawks – No Injuries Reported
  • Payton Pritchard (Celtics): Pritchard is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Atlanta.
  • Robert Williams III (Celtics): Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said Williams could miss 7-10 days.
  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): Gallinari is hoping to return and play at the end of the season, according to Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe.

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 15.5 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have averaged 1.8 second chance points per game (85 points/47 games) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7

The Celtics have an eFG% of 56% this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Celtics have a 25% free throw rate (1,311 free throw attempts/5,181 field goal attempts) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 27%

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (5,198 assists/ 2,571 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Hawks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,269 turnovers/213 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Hawks have averaged 12.4 turnovers per game (733 turnovers/59 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Hawks have averaged 11.5 turnovers per game (796 turnovers/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 35.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,082 rebounds/59 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Celtics have averaged 6.2 steals per game (364 steals/59 games) this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 steals per game (708 steals/107 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Celtics have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (794 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (469 steals/72 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Hawks have averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,968 rebounds/59 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Hawks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (728 steals/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have blocked 291 shots this season — tied for 10th most among NBA teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.