Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 05, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics (26-12) are -3.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (22-16)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Thursday, January 5, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on TNT & NBCS-BOS

The Boston Celtics visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Dallas.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Celtics vs Mavericks Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 20-17 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 13-23 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-3.5 -105O 231.5 -105-145
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 -115U 231.5 -105+120

Mavericks vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Thursday‘s game with 59.3% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 54.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Celtics and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+17.76 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 47 away games (+16.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 47 away games (+16.18 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.53 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 31 of their last 47 away games (+13.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 100 games (+26.96 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 43 games at home (+11.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 20-17 (+1.3 Units / 3.12% ROI).

  • 26-12 against the Moneyline (-14.2 Units / -11.22% ROI)
  • 20-18 against the Over for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.48% ROI)
  • 18-20 against the Under for game total points (-4 Units / -9.57% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 13-23 (-12.3 Units / -29.43% ROI).

  • 22-16 against the Moneyline (-12.5 Units / -14.17% ROI)
  • 22-16 against the Over for game total points (+4.4 Units / 10.53% ROI)
  • 16-22 against the Under for game total points (-8.2 Units / -19.62% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 100 games (-39.28 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 95 games (-18.88 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 90 games (-16.85 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 75 games (-16.70 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 74 games (-16.01 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 99 games (-31.25 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 78 games (-24.76 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (-24.30 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 36 of their last 73 games (-21.00 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 75 games (-19.60 Units / -23% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Celtics are 20-10 (.667) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Celtics are 21-11 (.656) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Celtics are 40-7 (.851) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .767

The Celtics are 22-4 (.846) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. CelticsThursday‘s Game, Jan. 5

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): The Mavericks announced that Kleber underwent surgery for a right hamstring tear and there’s no timetable for his return.
  • Josh Green (Mavericks): Green hasn’t played since Dec. 9 against Milwaukee. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks): Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said Finney-Smith will miss at least another couple weeks, according to NBA writer Marc Stein.
  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): The Celtics announced that Gallinari tore his ACL in his left knee. There is no timetable for his return.

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 1.38 points per shot (1,554 points/1,124 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have averaged 1.42 points per shot (812 points/570 shots) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (342 assists/ 159 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Celtics have a TS% of 57% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (283 blocks/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Celtics have averaged 5.3 steals per game (69 steals/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Celtics have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (71 blocks/13 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics have averaged 6.7 steals per game (562 steals/84 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.