Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 01, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics (26-10) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets (23-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
  • Sunday, January 1, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT & NBCS-BOS

The Boston Celtics visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Denver.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Celtics vs Nuggets Over/Under is 234.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 20-15 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 17-18 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-1.5 -115O 234.5 -110-130
Denver Nuggets +1.5 -105U 234.5 -110+110

Nuggets vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Sunday‘s game with 52.5% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Celtics and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 away games (+21.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 35 of their last 50 away games (+19.18 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 61 of their last 100 games (+16.37 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 34 of their last 50 away games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 45 away games (+15.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 50 of their last 87 games (+10.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 44 of their last 75 games (+8.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 20-15 (+3.5 Units / 8.86% ROI).

  • 26-10 against the Moneyline (-6.8 Units / -5.7% ROI)
  • 18-18 against the Over for game total points (-1.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 18-18 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 17-18 (-2.8 Units / -7.27% ROI).

  • 23-12 against the Moneyline (+4.45 Units / 5.09% ROI)
  • 17-18 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -7.27% ROI)
  • 18-17 against the Under for game total points (-0.7 Units / -1.82% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 43 of their last 89 games (-26.46 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 86 games (-26.04 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 36 of their last 89 games (-19.20 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 3Q Spread in 29 of their last 73 games (-18.88 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 83 games (-18.80 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 100 games (-30.30 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 76 games (-22.58 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 73 games (-21.60 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 81 games (-17.91 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 36 of their last 71 games (-17.10 Units / -15% ROI)

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Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Celtics are 20-10 (.667) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Celtics are 21-11 (.656) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Celtics are 40-7 (.851) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .767

The Celtics are 22-4 (.846) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. CelticsSunday‘s Game, Jan. 1

  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is dealing with fractured left hand and sprained finger and will be re-evaluated in a month, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is questionable for Sunday’s (Jan. 1) game against Boston.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): Gordon is probable for Sunday’s (Jan. 1) game against Boston.
  • Bruce Brown (Nuggets): Brown is probable for Sunday’s (Jan. 1) game against Boston.
  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): The Celtics announced that Gallinari tore his ACL in his left knee. There is no timetable for his return.
  • Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics): Brogdon did not play in Thursday’s (Dec. 29) game against the Clippers.
  • Blake Griffin (Celtics): Griffin did not play in Thursday’s (Dec. 29) game against the Clippers.

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 1.38 points per shot (1,554 points/1,124 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have averaged 1.42 points per shot (812 points/570 shots) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (342 assists/ 159 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Celtics have a TS% of 57% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (283 blocks/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Celtics have averaged 5.3 steals per game (69 steals/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Celtics have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (71 blocks/13 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics have averaged 6.7 steals per game (562 steals/84 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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