Grizzlies vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 21

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on FSUN | FDSM | WPLG

The Memphis Grizzlies visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm in Miami, FL.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Grizzlies vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Grizzlies are 25-29 against the spread, while the Heat are 32-24 against the spread.

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Grizzlies vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Heat vs Grizzlies Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 70.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Grizzlies and Heat.

Heat vs Grizzlies Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Grizzlies will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 62.2% confidence.

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Grizzlies Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 away games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1H Spread in their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)

Memphis Grizzlies Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 25-29 (-6.9 Units / -11.62% ROI).

• 21-33 against the Moneyline (-16 Units / -22.24% ROI)
• 25-29 against the Over for game total points (-6.9 Units / -11.62% ROI)
• 29-25 against the Under for game total points (+1.5 Units / 2.53% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-24 (+5.6 Units / 8.93% ROI).

• 30-27 against the Moneyline (-0.15 Units / -0.16% ROI)
• 28-28 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.47% ROI)
• 28-28 against the Under for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.47% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 40 games (-19.80 Units / -37% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 18 of their last 50 games (-18.90 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 16 of their last 45 games at home (-16.93 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 35 games at home (-16.65 Units / -41% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.15 Units / -28% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Grizzlies:

• The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 35 away games (-16.75 Units / -41% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.50 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 40 away games (-15.25 Units / -28% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 30 games (-14.36 Units / -38% ROI)
• The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 40 games (-13.50 Units / -30% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Memphis Grizzlies
• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Player Injuries for Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
• Memphis Grizzlies Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Memphis Grizzlies Defensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats

Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Grizzlies were 3-27 (.100) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three in the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .317

The Grizzlies were undefeated (10-0) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .627

The Grizzlies were 1-28 (.034) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .207

The Grizzlies are 3-13 (.188) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .389

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Heat are 3-16 (.158) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .396

The Heat are 21-12 (.636) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .525

The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Heat were 3-9 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals in the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies shot 43% (1,551/3,600) at home in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Grizzlies shot 43% (3,145/7,230) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Grizzlies averaged 105.8 points per game (8,677 points/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Grizzlies had a TS% of 48% at home in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat had an eFG% of 50% in close and late situations last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat averaged 110.1 points per game (9,032 points/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies allowed 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (825 rebounds/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.6

The Grizzlies averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (3,017 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Grizzlies averaged 34.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,785 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Grizzlies forced 16.2 turnovers per game (663 turnovers/41 games) at home in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (835 blocks/221 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (410 blocks/109 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (555 blocks/139 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

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