- The Nuggets (44-19) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Grizzlies (38-23)
- Total (Over/Under): 233.5 points
- Friday, March 3, 2023 at 10:00pm EST
- Watch the game on ALT & BSSE
The Memphis Grizzlies visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).
The Grizzlies vs Nuggets Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Grizzlies are 29-30 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 35-27 against the spread.
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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Memphis Grizzlies | +5.5 -115 | O 233.5 -110 | +165 |
Denver Nuggets | -5.5 -105 | U 233.5 -110 | -200 |
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 62.1% confidence.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Grizzlies and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Grizzlies Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1H Moneyline in 61 of their last 91 games (+20.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 50 of their last 77 games (+19.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1H Spread in 56 of their last 91 games (+18.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 58 of their last 91 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.58 Units / 14% ROI)
Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 59 games (+24.82 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 26 games at home (+21.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 54 of their last 88 games (+15.64 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 31 games at home (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Memphis Grizzlies Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 29-30 (-4 Units / -5.96% ROI).
- 38-23 against the Moneyline (-0.75 Units / -0.48% ROI)
- 25-33 against the Over for game total points (-11.3 Units / -16.84% ROI)
- 33-25 against the Under for game total points (+5.5 Units / 8.2% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 35-27 (+5.3 Units / 7.65% ROI).
- 44-19 against the Moneyline (+17.55 Units / 10.61% ROI)
- 32-31 against the Over for game total points (-2.1 Units / -3.03% ROI)
- 31-32 against the Under for game total points (-4.2 Units / -6.06% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 86 games (-34.99 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 88 games (-27.57 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 84 games (-25.86 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 44 of their last 87 games (-20.17 Units / -14% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-19.51 Units / -21% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Grizzlies:
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 92 games (-39.04 Units / -32% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 91 games (-30.55 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 45 away games (-28.15 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 65 games (-27.61 Units / -39% ROI)
- The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 92 games (-22.90 Units / -22% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Memphis Grizzlies
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Player Injuries for Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets
- Memphis Grizzlies Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Memphis Grizzlies Defensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Memphis Grizzlies are 3-12 (.200) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — tied for seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets has shot 39% from three (742/1,882) this season — best among NBA teams.
The Memphis Grizzlies are 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin this season — third-best among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets have averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (856 turnovers/60 games) this season — tied for sixth-highest among NBA teams.
The Memphis Grizzlies are 59-23 (.720) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-best among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets have averaged 14.0 turnovers per game (1,991 turnovers/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fourth-highest among NBA teams.
The Grizzlies are 40-21 (.656) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies
The Nuggets are 44-8 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .597
The Nuggets are 28-11 (.718) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .495
The Nuggets are 29-7 (.806) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562
The Nuggets are 27-9 (.750) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575
Injury Report: Nuggets vs. Grizzlies – Friday‘s Game, Mar. 3
- Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Gordon as PROBABLE for Friday’s game (Mar. 3) against the Grizzlies.
- Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie has not played this season and no timetable has been announced for his return.
- Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji has not played since Feb. 5 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
- Vlatko Cancar (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Cancar as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Mar. 3) against the Grizzlies.
- Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Porter Jr. as PROBABLE for Friday’s game (Mar. 3) against the Grizzlies.
- Steven Adams (Grizzlies): Adams will be sidelined three to five weeks after sustaining a PCL sprain in his right knee per Grizzlies PR twitter.
Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends
The Grizzlies have a TS% of 43% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%
The Grizzlies have averaged 28.3 points in the paint per game (6,006 points/212 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.2
The Grizzlies have averaged 17.0 second chance points per game (1,798 points/106 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.4
The Grizzlies have averaged 60.0 points in the paint per game (4,200 points/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.9
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,882/9,548) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%
The Nuggets have averaged 30.6 assists per game (949 assists/31 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4
The Nuggets are shooting 53% (1,393/2,654) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%
The Nuggets have averaged 29.2 assists per game (2,102 assists/72 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2
Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends
The Grizzlies have averaged 9.4 steals per game (655 steals/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Grizzlies have averaged 9.1 steals per game (1,939 steals/212 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Grizzlies have averaged 9.2 steals per game (1,284 steals/140 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Grizzlies have averaged 6.8 blocks per game (479 blocks/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (893 blocks/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (570 blocks/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Nuggets have 458 steals this season — tied for 9th most among NBA teams
The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (284 blocks/70 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6
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