- The Heat (33-31) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Hawks (32-31)
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
- Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
- Watch the game on BSSUN & BSSE
The Atlanta Hawks visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Hawks vs Heat Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 28-34 against the spread, while the Heat are 23-39 against the spread.
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Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Atlanta Hawks | +1.5 -110 | O 225.5 -105 | +100 |
Miami Heat | -1.5 -110 | U 225.5 -105 | -120 |
Heat vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Hawks will win Saturday‘s game with 54.4% confidence.
Heat vs Hawks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 54.4% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Hawks and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Hawks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 47 away games (+14.84 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+8.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+7.78 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.76 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+13.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.42 Units / 44% ROI)
Atlanta Hawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 28-34 (-9.4 Units / -13.56% ROI).
- 32-31 against the Moneyline (-12.55 Units / -10.89% ROI)
- 36-27 against the Over for game total points (+6.3 Units / 9.09% ROI)
- 27-36 against the Under for game total points (-12.6 Units / -18.18% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 23-39 (-19.9 Units / -28.27% ROI).
- 33-31 against the Moneyline (-17.55 Units / -14.46% ROI)
- 28-35 against the Over for game total points (-10.5 Units / -14.91% ROI)
- 35-28 against the Under for game total points (+4.2 Units / 5.97% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-26.85 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 64 games (-23.17 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 21 of their last 54 games (-22.85 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 67 games (-22.34 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 25 of their last 70 games (-22.30 Units / -29% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Hawks:
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 35 of their last 86 games (-33.54 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 58 games (-28.33 Units / -42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 58 games (-21.92 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 47 away games (-21.04 Units / -40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 83 games (-17.98 Units / -19% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Atlanta Hawks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
- Atlanta Hawks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Atlanta Hawks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Atlanta Hawks are 4-12 (.250) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 10th-worst among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers has shot 37% from three (764/2,044) this season — eighth-best among NBA teams.
The Atlanta Hawks are 48-26 (.649) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th-best among NBA teams. The Portland Trail Blazers have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,939 turnovers/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for seventh-highest among NBA teams.
The Hawks are 58-11 (.841) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .780
The Hawks are 24-26 (.480) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks
The Heat are 45-14 (.763) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542
The Heat are 29-13 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
The Heat are 18-6 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .675
The Heat are 24-15 (.615) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
Injury Report: Heat vs. Hawks – Saturday‘s Game, Mar. 4
- Kyle Lowry (Heat): The Heat have listed Lowry as OUT for Friday’s game (Mar. 3) against the Knicks.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic has been out since Dec. 26 and remains without a timetable for return.
- Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Yurtseven is making progress. His ankle is fully healed and the hope is that he’s able to return after the All-Star break, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.
- Atlanta Hawks – No Injuries Reported
Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (5,198 assists/ 2,571 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9
The Hawks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,269 turnovers/213 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6
The Hawks have averaged 12.4 turnovers per game (733 turnovers/59 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Hawks have averaged 11.5 turnovers per game (796 turnovers/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 51.4 points per game (3,033 points/59 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0
The Heat have averaged 108.0 points per game (6,374 points/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3
The Heat are shooting 32% from three (316/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Heat have averaged 52.4 points per game (7,395 points/141 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.9
Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (469 steals/72 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Hawks have averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,968 rebounds/59 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1
The Hawks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (728 steals/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6
The Hawks have blocked 291 shots this season — tied for 10th most among NBA teams
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (438 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (173 blocks/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (205 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (724 blocks/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8
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