The Atlanta Hawks start the 2026-27 NBA season with an over/under of 43.5 in the NBA win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Hawks Over/Under Wins 2026-27
Hawks Win Total Prediction
- Under 43.5 wins (-110) — Prediction made Aug. 24
My win total prediction for the Hawks prefers the under, as they could be one of the teams hurt the most by the new lottery landscape.
Thanks to a hot second half of the 2025-26 regular season, Atlanta finished 46-36 before losing to the New York Knicks in Round 1. The Hawks went 20-6 after the All-Star break, including a 13-2 clip in March.
Given how many teams were tanking at the end of last year, I’m not willing to put too much stock into the Hawks’ late-season push. The Hawks went 23-6 against teams below .500 last year, but were just 23-30 against squads with a winning record.
Under the new lottery rules, teams are discouraged from tanking more than ever before. And that could make the league more competitive, especially in the spring when injury reports start to fill up.
Without as many easy wins on the menu, the Hawks seem poised to take a step back in a much deeper Eastern Conference. They project to be more of a play-in team after claiming the No. 6 seed last year.
Jalen Johnson remains one of the most underrated players in the league, but I’m less confident about the talent around him. Nickeil Alexander-Walker will look to follow up a Most Improved Player campaign. CJ McCollum was a key player last year, but he will turn 35 in September.
Dyson Daniels and Luguentz Dort are better known for their defensive impact.
The Hawks have built a solid foundation, but until they add another high-impact player next to Johnson, I’m skeptical of their ceiling.
Hawks Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 47.5 | 46 | Under |
| 2024-25 | 36.5 | 40 | Over |
| 2023-24 | 42.5 | 36 | Under |
| 2022-23 | 46.5 | 41 | Under |
| 2021-22 | 47.5 | 43 | Under |
| 2020-21 | 34.5 | 41 | Over |
| 2019-20 | 33.5 | 20 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 23.5 | 29 | Over |
| 2017-18 | 25.5 | 24 | Under |
| 2016-17 | 43.5 | 43 | Under |
| 2015-16 | 49.5 | 48 | Under |
| 2014-15 | 42.5 | 60 | Over |
| 2013-14 | 39.5 | 38 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 42.5 | 44 | Over |
| 2011-12 | 34.5 | 40 | Over |
| 2010-11 | 46.5 | 44 | Under |
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