Heat vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 24

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 24, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks (41-17) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat (32-27)
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Friday, February 24, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSWI & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Bucks Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 22-35 against the spread, while the Bucks are 32-24 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+4.5 -115O 221.5 -110+140
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 -105U 221.5 -110-165

Bucks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Friday‘s game with 53.4% confidence.

Bucks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Bucks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games (+15.34 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.74 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+10.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.56 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 53 of their last 81 games (+22.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 91 games (+16.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 46 of their last 75 games (+15.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 22-35 (-16.5 Units / -25.42% ROI).

  • 32-27 against the Moneyline (-13.1 Units / -11.48% ROI)
  • 26-32 against the Over for game total points (-9.2 Units / -14.18% ROI)
  • 32-26 against the Under for game total points (+3.4 Units / 5.24% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 32-24 (+5.6 Units / 8.78% ROI).

  • 41-17 against the Moneyline (+10.95 Units / 7.29% ROI)
  • 27-31 against the Over for game total points (-7.1 Units / -11.13% ROI)
  • 31-27 against the Under for game total points (+1.3 Units / 2.04% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 92 games (-30.71 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 81 games (-30.45 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 79 games (-27.69 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 86 games (-25.31 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 68 games (-19.03 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 62 games (-23.19 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 95 games (-23.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (-22.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 59 games (-19.33 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 24 of their last 65 games (-18.90 Units / -26% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Heat are 15-5 (.750) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .529

The Heat are 32-16 (.667) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .496

The Heat are 86-24 (.782) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .678

The Heat are 28-13 (.683) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Milwaukee Bucks are 72-15 (.828) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 42.8 rebounds per game (5,864 rebounds/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for seventh-lowest among NBA teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 30-7 (.811) when winning the rebounding margin this season — fifth-best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 41.4 rebounds per game (2,279 rebounds/55 games) this season — fifth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Bucks are 18-1 (.947) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Bucks are 50-17 (.746) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

Injury Report: Bucks vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Feb. 24

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Antetokounmpo is doubtful for Friday’s (Feb.24) game against Miami.
  • Bobby Portis (Bucks): Portis is ramping up activity and the hope is that he’s able to return shortly after the All-Star break, according to Eric Nehm of The Athletic.
  • Jae Crowder (Bucks): Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said the team will evaluate Crowder over the next 7-10 days.
  • Khris Middleton (Bucks): Middleton did not play in Thursday’s (Feb. 16) game against Chicago.
  • Pat Connaughton (Bucks): Connaughton is doubtful for Friday’s (Feb.24) game against Miami.
  • Wesley Matthews (Bucks): Matthews is out for Friday’s (Feb.24) game against Miami.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry will miss at least the next three games, according to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is questionable for Friday’s (Feb.24) game against Milwaukee.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Yurtseven is making progress. His ankle is fully healed and the hope is that he’s able to return after the All-Star break, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.9 points per game (2,852 points/55 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0

The Heat have averaged 108.6 points per game (5,975 points/55 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Heat have averaged 108.2 points per game (3,029 points/28 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 112.8

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,159/4,764) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 8.5 second chance points per game (468 points/55 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Bucks have 22.9 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.7

The Bucks have averaged 45.3 points in the paint per game (2,494 points/55 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.1

The Bucks have averaged 1.27 points per shot (6,298 points/4,960 shots) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (425 blocks/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (160 blocks/55 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (357 blocks/105 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (203 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (7,768 rebounds/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Bucks have averaged 37.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,054 rebounds/55 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Bucks have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (5,044 rebounds/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Bucks have averaged 7.7 steals per game (805 steals/104 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.