Heat vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 04, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks (35-17) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat (29-24)
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSWI & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Bucks Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 21-30 against the spread, while the Bucks are 27-23 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+5.5 -110O 222.5 -110+180
Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -110U 222.5 -110-225

Bucks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Saturday‘s game with 61.8% confidence.

Bucks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Bucks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+13.64 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+10.36 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+8.78 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 49 of their last 75 games (+20.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+16.61 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 43 of their last 69 games (+15.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+11.53 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 85 games (+10.15 Units / 5% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 21-30 (-12 Units / -20.58% ROI).

  • 29-24 against the Moneyline (-12.95 Units / -12.85% ROI)
  • 22-30 against the Over for game total points (-11 Units / -18.87% ROI)
  • 30-22 against the Under for game total points (+5.8 Units / 9.95% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 27-23 (+1.7 Units / 2.97% ROI).

  • 35-17 against the Moneyline (+4.95 Units / 3.71% ROI)
  • 25-27 against the Over for game total points (-4.7 Units / -8.22% ROI)
  • 27-25 against the Under for game total points (-0.5 Units / -0.87% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 90 games (-39.45 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 75 games (-28.10 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 38 of their last 80 games (-25.19 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 73 games (-25.12 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 36 of their last 90 games (-23.46 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 97 games (-21.40 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-20.89 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 97 games (-19.25 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 68 games (-18.49 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 73 games (-18.30 Units / -23% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Heat are 42-20 (.677) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Heat are 30-15 (.667) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .494

The Heat are 19-15 (.559) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .507

The Heat are 32-13 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .577

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Milwaukee Bucks are 64-15 (.810) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — fifth-best among NBA teams. The Detroit Pistons have averaged 42.8 rebounds per game (5,567 rebounds/130 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Bucks are winless (0-15) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .181

The Bucks are 41-7 (.854) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

The Bucks are 45-17 (.726) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Bucks vs. HeatSaturday‘s Game, Feb. 4

  • Bobby Portis (Bucks): Portis is expected to miss at least two weeks with an MCL sprain in his right knee, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • MarJon Beauchamp (Bucks): Beauchamp is probable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Miami.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks): Antetokounmpo is probable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Miami.
  • Serge Ibaka (Bucks): Ibaka is not expected to rejoin the team when they return to Milwaukee following a four-game road trip, according to Eric Nehm of The Athletic.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo is doubtful for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Milwaukee.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is questionable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Milwaukee.
  • Orlando Robinson (Heat): Robinson is out for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Milwaukee.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.6 points per game (2,479 points/48 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55.9

The Heat have averaged 108.6 points per game (5,215 points/48 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.2

The Heat are shooting 31% from three (256/816) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Heat have averaged 42.7 points in the paint per game (2,776 points/65 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.7

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 106.5 points per game (2,449 points/23 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 112.6

The Bucks are shooting 43% (887/2,053) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Bucks have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (942 points/23 games) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.4

The Bucks are shooting 45% (944/2,108) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (195 blocks/65 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (695 blocks/202 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (144 blocks/48 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (409 blocks/130 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,389 rebounds/200 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.0

The Bucks have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (4,665 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Bucks have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,675 rebounds/46 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Bucks have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (286 blocks/64 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.