Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 02, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics (17-4) are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat (10-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Friday, December 2, 2022 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on NBCS-BOS & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boston.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 7-14 against the spread, while the Celtics are 14-8 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+7.5 -115O 226.5 -110+220
Boston Celtics -7.5 -105U 226.5 -110-275

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Friday‘s game with 68.2% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.9% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Celtics, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 58 of their last 94 games (+18.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games (+15.52 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 57 of their last 100 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 97 games (+12.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 31 away games (+12.02 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 87 games (+24.79 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 65 of their last 97 games (+19.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 40 of their last 60 games (+17.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 66 of their last 97 games (+17.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the Spread in 49 of their last 81 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 7-14 (-8.4 Units / -34.71% ROI).

  • 10-12 against the Moneyline (-6.45 Units / -17.06% ROI)
  • 11-10 against the Over for game total points (+0 Units / 0% ROI)
  • 10-11 against the Under for game total points (-2.1 Units / -8.68% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 14-8 (+5.2 Units / 21.53% ROI).

  • 18-4 against the Moneyline (+9.65 Units / 14.52% ROI)
  • 13-9 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 12.81% ROI)
  • 9-13 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -21.9% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 87 games (-36.61 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 52 of their last 99 games (-22.86 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 59 games (-22.70 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 72 games (-20.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 50 of their last 94 games (-18.35 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 95 games (-26.38 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 100 games (-22.65 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 52 games (-21.95 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (-20.43 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 100 games (-20.35 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 20-10 (.667) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Celtics are 21-11 (.656) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Celtics are 40-7 (.851) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .767

The Celtics are 22-4 (.846) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Dec. 2

  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): The Celtics announced that Gallinari tore his ACL in his left knee. There is no timetable for his return.
  • Robert Williams III (Celtics): Williams III underwent a procedure and will need 4-6 weeks to recover, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is probable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is questionable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Max Strus (Heat): Strus is probable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo has not played this season and is not believed to be closed to returning to action, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is questionable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is questionable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson is probable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is probable for Friday’s (Dec. 2) game against Boston.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 1.38 points per shot (1,554 points/1,124 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have averaged 1.42 points per shot (812 points/570 shots) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (342 assists/ 159 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Celtics have a TS% of 57% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (283 blocks/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Celtics have averaged 5.3 steals per game (69 steals/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Celtics have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (71 blocks/13 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics have averaged 6.7 steals per game (562 steals/84 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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