- The Heat (25-21) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (24-22)
- Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
- Friday, January 20, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
- Watch the game on BSSW & BSSUN
The Miami Heat visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Dallas.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Mavericks Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 19-25 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 15-29 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Miami Heat | -1.5 -110 | O 217.5 -115 | -120 |
Dallas Mavericks | +1.5 -110 | U 217.5 -115 | +100 |
Mavericks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.
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Heat Team Prop Bets for Tonight, Ranked by Units Won:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.96 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 60 of their last 100 games (+12.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.72 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Mavericks Team Prop Bets for Tonight, Ranked by Units Won:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 60 of their last 96 games (+21.03 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 46 games at home (+9.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 19-25 (-8.5 Units / -16.8% ROI).
- 25-21 against the Moneyline (-12.35 Units / -14.2% ROI)
- 21-24 against the Over for game total points (-5.4 Units / -10.67% ROI)
- 24-21 against the Under for game total points (+0.9 Units / 1.78% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 15-29 (-16.85 Units / -33.33% ROI).
- 24-22 against the Moneyline (-16.95 Units / -16.99% ROI)
- 27-19 against the Over for game total points (+6.1 Units / 12.06% ROI)
- 19-27 against the Under for game total points (-10.7 Units / -21.15% ROI)
Negative Value Trends Against the Spread for the Mavericks, Ranked by Units Lost:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 96 games (-32.84 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 37 games (-23.76 Units / -44% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 82 games (-23.31 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 91 games (-22.83 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 16 of their last 51 games (-20.25 Units / -36% ROI)
Negative Value Trends Against the Spread for the Heat, Ranked by Units Lost:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 100 games (-22.29 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.70 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 49 games (-19.44 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 76 games (-18.50 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 61 games (-17.28 Units / -25% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744
The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461
The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506
The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
Injury Report: Mavericks vs. Heat – Friday‘s Game, Jan. 20
- Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): The Mavericks announced that Kleber underwent surgery for a right hamstring tear and there’s no timetable for his return.
- McKinley Wright IV (Mavericks): Wright is out for Friday’s (Jan. 20) game against Miami.
- Christian Wood (Mavericks): Wood suffered a fractured left thumb and will be re-evaluated in one week, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. (Mavericks): Hardaway Jr. is probable for Friday’s (Jan. 20) game against Miami.
- Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
- Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is probable for Friday’s (Jan 20) game against Dallas.
- Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
- Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7
The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0
The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%
The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8
The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7
The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6
The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2
The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6
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