Heat vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 04, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat are -12.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
  • Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSDET & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Detroit.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Pistons Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 29-47 against the spread, while the Pistons are 33-42 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-13.5 -110O 218.5 -105-1000
Detroit Pistons +13.5 -110U 218.5 -105+650

Pistons vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 72.3% confidence.

Pistons vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Pistons, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 away games (+12.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+11.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+16.49 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+13.47 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 80 games (+10.52 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 2Q Spread in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.39 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 29-47 (-22.7 Units / -26.44% ROI).

  • 41-37 against the Moneyline (-17.35 Units / -11.88% ROI)
  • 36-41 against the Over for game total points (-9.1 Units / -10.61% ROI)
  • 41-36 against the Under for game total points (+1.4 Units / 1.63% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 33-42 (-13.25 Units / -15.43% ROI).

  • 16-62 against the Moneyline (-28.6 Units / -35.16% ROI)
  • 38-40 against the Over for game total points (-6 Units / -6.99% ROI)
  • 40-38 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -2.1% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 81 games (-31.60 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 81 games (-28.46 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 37 games (-28.25 Units / -73% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 81 games (-24.90 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 79 games (-23.28 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 31 of their last 84 games (-25.10 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 78 games (-25.04 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 98 games (-24.50 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 81 games (-23.15 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 85 games (-22.90 Units / -25% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat are 27-16 (.628) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

The Heat are 104-75 (.581) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

The Heat are 18-8 (.692) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 18-11 (.621) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .513

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons are 23-83 (.217) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .454

The Pistons are 10-61 (.141) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

The Pistons are 5-25 (.167) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Pistons are 8-39 (.170) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .435

Injury Report: Pistons vs. HeatTuesday‘s Game, Apr. 4

  • Isaiah Stewart (Pistons): The Pistons announced that Stewart has a left shoulder impingement and will re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks.
  • Cade Cunningham (Pistons): Cunningham had season-ending surgery on his shin. He plans on on being ready for next season, according to James Edwards III of The Athletic.
  • Marvin Bagley III (Pistons): Bagley III is out for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Miami.
  • Alec Burks (Pistons): Burks hasn’t played since Mar. 6 against Portland and remains without a timetable to return.
  • Hamidou Diallo (Pistons): The Pistons announced that Diallo has a grade 2 right ankle sprain and will be re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks.
  • Rodney McGruder (Pistons): McGruder is out for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Miami.
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons): Bogdanovic played his last game (Mar. 1) and has no timetable for return.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is questionable for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Detroit.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is questionable for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Detroit.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is out for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Detroit.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 109.1 points per game (7,748 points/71 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.5

The Heat have averaged 107.6 points per game (3,658 points/34 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.1

The Heat have averaged 52.2 points per game (3,707 points/71 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 108.1 points per game (7,781 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons are shooting 44% (5,879/13,306) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Pistons have a TS% of 48% since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pistons have a TS% of 48% at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pistons have an eFG% of 50% in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (379 blocks/111 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (771 blocks/225 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (241 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (220 blocks/71 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 34.2 defensive rebounds per game (7,627 rebounds/223 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0

The Pistons have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,125 rebounds/151 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.8

The Pistons have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,342 rebounds/69 games) this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (269 blocks/69 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.