Heat vs Raptors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 9

• The Raptors are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
• Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
• Watch the game on FSUN | SNET

The Miami Heat visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Raptors on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm in Toronto, ON.

The Raptors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Raptors Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 43-35 against the spread, while the Raptors are 40-38 against the spread.

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Heat vs. Raptors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Raptors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Raptors will win Thursday‘s game with 62.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Raptors.

Raptors vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 69.1% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+14.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 28 of their last 45 away games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Raptors Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Toronto Raptors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have covered the 3Q Spread in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-35 (+4.5 Units / 5.18% ROI).

• 41-38 against the Moneyline (-3.2 Units / -1.89% ROI)
• 43-34 against the Over for game total points (+5.6 Units / 6.44% ROI)
• 34-43 against the Under for game total points (-13.3 Units / -15.3% ROI)

Toronto Raptors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 40-38 (-1.8 Units / -2.07% ROI).

• 44-35 against the Moneyline (+1.35 Units / 0.83% ROI)
• 31-48 against the Over for game total points (-21.8 Units / -25.09% ROI)
• 48-31 against the Under for game total points (+13.9 Units / 16% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Raptors:

• The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-17.40 Units / -30% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 30 games (-16.95 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-13.00 Units / -24% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.25 Units / -21% ROI)
• The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 22 of their last 50 games (-10.35 Units / -18% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 25 games (-18.95 Units / -50% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 25 games (-15.80 Units / -55% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 45 games (-15.10 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.10 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 40 games (-13.50 Units / -31% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Keys to Winning for the Toronto Raptors
• Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Toronto Raptors Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats
• Toronto Raptors Defensive stats

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Heat are 49-23 (.681) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

The Heat are 8-20 (.286) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .417

The Heat are 54-34 (.614) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Heat are 8-24 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Raptors are 24-2 (.923) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .783

The Raptors are 13-33 (.283) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .352

The Raptors are 7-83 (.078) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Raptors are 8-24 (.250) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .443

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 123.0 points per game (4,919 points/40 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 116.4

The Heat have averaged 20.1 fast break points per game (805 points/40 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.3

The Heat have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (2,243 assists/ 1,065 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Heat have averaged 13.7 turnovers per game (1,065 turnovers/78 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.5

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 19.3 fast break points per game (2,332 points/121 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.3

The Raptors have averaged 18.5 fast break points per game (4,505 points/243 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.0

The Raptors have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,087 turnovers/79 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.5

The Raptors have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (2,333 assists/ 1,087 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (453 blocks/120 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (481 blocks/122 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (654 blocks/160 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (340 blocks/78 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,657 rebounds/79 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Raptors have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (526 blocks/122 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Raptors have allowed 12.6 fast break points per game (994 points/79 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 15.2

The Raptors have averaged 8.2 steals per game (999 steals/122 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.1

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