Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 15, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (13-15) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Rockets (9-18)
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Thursday, December 15, 2022 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Houston.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Rockets Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 9-19 against the spread, while the Rockets are 13-12 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-3.5 -115O 217.5 -110-160
Houston Rockets +3.5 -105U 217.5 -110+135

Rockets vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 58.0% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.1% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Rockets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+14.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 55 of their last 98 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.91 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.66 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.58 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.49 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+12.60 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+10.95 Units / 100% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+10.47 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.85 Units / 72% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 9-19 (-11.9 Units / -37.3% ROI).

  • 14-15 against the Moneyline (-13.8 Units / -24.21% ROI)
  • 14-14 against the Over for game total points (-1.4 Units / -4.39% ROI)
  • 14-14 against the Under for game total points (-1.4 Units / -4.39% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 13-12 (-0.2 Units / -0.67% ROI).

  • 9-18 against the Moneyline (+3.4 Units / 12.45% ROI)
  • 13-14 against the Over for game total points (-2.4 Units / -8.08% ROI)
  • 14-13 against the Under for game total points (-0.3 Units / -1.01% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 82 games (-20.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the Spread in 33 of their last 82 games (-17.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 33 of their last 79 games (-17.42 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 68 games (-16.99 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 79 games (-15.58 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 100 games (-26.84 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 63 games (-22.51 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 23 of their last 63 games (-20.86 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 87 games (-16.45 Units / -16% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Rockets are 14-56 (.197) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Rockets are 10-38 (.208) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Rockets are 5-64 (.072) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .224

The Rockets are 2-19 (.095) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

Injury Report: Rockets vs. HeatThursday‘s Game, Dec. 15

  • Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets): Tate remains without a timetable to return, according to Adam Spolane of Sports Radio 610 Houston.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is out for Wednesday’s (Dec. 14) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is out for Wednesday’s (Dec. 14) game against Oklahoma City.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (285 assists/ 221 TOs) this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (3,913 assists/ 2,527 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Rockets have averaged 15.8 turnovers per game (1,373 turnovers/87 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (52 assists/ 48 TOs) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have averaged 32.3 defensive rebounds per game (3,071 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8

The Rockets have averaged 32.7 defensive rebounds per game (5,465 rebounds/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Rockets have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (61 blocks/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Rockets have averaged 31.5 defensive rebounds per game (410 rebounds/13 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.