Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (20-19) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Suns (20-19)
  • Total (Over/Under): 213.5 points
  • Friday, January 6, 2023 at 10:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSAZ & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Phoenix.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Suns Over/Under is 213.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 14-23 against the spread, while the Suns are 20-19 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-2.5 -105O 213.5 -115-135
Phoenix Suns +2.5 -115U 213.5 -115+115

Suns vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 52.2% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Suns, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 61 of their last 100 games (+14.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.28 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.04 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.06 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 4Q Spread in 58 of their last 95 games (+18.18 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 44 games at home (+14.62 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.28 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.59 Units / 50% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 14-23 (-11.3 Units / -26.34% ROI).

  • 20-19 against the Moneyline (-15.3 Units / -19.91% ROI)
  • 18-20 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -9.32% ROI)
  • 20-18 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.47% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 20-19 (-0.9 Units / -2.1% ROI).

  • 20-19 against the Moneyline (-15.75 Units / -16.1% ROI)
  • 18-20 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -9.32% ROI)
  • 20-18 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.47% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 58 games (-41.25 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 63 games (-24.35 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 1H Spread in 22 of their last 65 games (-22.25 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 78 games (-20.95 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 95 games (-19.97 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 97 games (-25.50 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.65 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 29 games (-19.99 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 69 games (-19.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 54 games (-17.96 Units / -30% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Phoenix Suns are 45-2 (.957) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 43.1 rebounds per game (4,056 rebounds/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Suns are 47-5 (.904) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Suns are 26-6 (.812) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

The Suns are 33-9 (.786) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

Injury Report: Suns vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Jan. 6

  • Cameron Johnson (Suns): Johnson had surgery and should return in 1-2 months, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Cameron Payne (Suns): The Heat have listed Payne as OUT for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Heat.
  • Devin Booker (Suns): The Suns announced that Booker has a left groin strain and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
  • Caleb Martin (Heat): The Heat have listed Martin as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Suns.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Udonis Haslem (Heat): The Heat have listed Haslem as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Suns.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): The Heat have listed Dedmon as PROBABLE for Friday’s game (Jan. 6) against the Suns.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.7 (162 assists/ 60 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have averaged 5.0 turnovers per game (60 turnovers/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (2,193 assists/ 981 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (1,241 assists/ 577 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 30.2 defensive rebounds per game (363 rebounds/12 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Suns have averaged 8.5 steals per game (798 steals/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Suns have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,738 rebounds/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Suns have averaged 7.9 steals per game (1,315 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.