Heat vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 11

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on FSUN | FDOK

The Miami Heat visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oklahoma City, OK.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Thunder Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 20-17 against the spread, while the Thunder are 19-20 against the spread.

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Heat vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Thunder vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Thunder.

Thunder vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 61.0% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 36 of their last 45 away games (+26.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 away games (+23.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 away games (+13.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 28 of their last 45 away games (+11.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-17 (+1.3 Units / 3.11% ROI).

• 20-18 against the Moneyline (-1.45 Units / -2.27% ROI)
• 17-20 against the Over for game total points (-5 Units / -11.96% ROI)
• 20-17 against the Under for game total points (+1.3 Units / 3.11% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 19-20 (-3 Units / -6.99% ROI).

• 32-7 against the Moneyline (+2.9 Units / 1.01% ROI)
• 20-19 against the Over for game total points (-0.9 Units / -2.1% ROI)
• 19-20 against the Under for game total points (-3 Units / -6.99% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (-19.45 Units / -20% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (-17.45 Units / -19% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 games (-17.05 Units / -9% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.80 Units / -26% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (-14.00 Units / -39% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 45 games (-15.15 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 45 away games (-14.93 Units / -28% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.11 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 40 away games (-14.00 Units / -30% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 45 away games (-13.54 Units / -24% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (99 assists/ 34 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 14.4 offensive rebounds per game (562 rebounds/39 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 18.1

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Thunder have averaged 9.6 steals per game (1,945 steals/203 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 10.4 steals per game (404 steals/39 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Thunder have averaged 10.0 steals per game (1,039 steals/104 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

The Thunder have allowed 39.4 points in the paint per game (1,538 points/39 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 49.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (99 assists/ 34 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 14.4 offensive rebounds per game (562 rebounds/39 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 18.1

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.6 steals per game (1,945 steals/203 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 10.4 steals per game (404 steals/39 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Thunder have averaged 10.0 steals per game (1,039 steals/104 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

The Thunder have allowed 39.4 points in the paint per game (1,538 points/39 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 49.9

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (99 assists/ 34 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 14.4 offensive rebounds per game (562 rebounds/39 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 18.1

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.6 steals per game (1,945 steals/203 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 10.4 steals per game (404 steals/39 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Thunder have averaged 10.0 steals per game (1,039 steals/104 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

The Thunder have allowed 39.4 points in the paint per game (1,538 points/39 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 49.9

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