Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 21, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Timberwolves (8-8) are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat (7-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
  • Monday, November 21, 2022 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSN & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Minneapolis.

The Timberwolves are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 4-13 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 6-10 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+9.5 -110O 220.5 -110310
Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 -110U 220.5 -110-400

Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Monday‘s game with 68.0% confidence.

Timberwolves vs Heat Spread Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.9% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Timberwolves, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 56 of their last 89 games (+18.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 96 games (+15.39 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+12.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+10.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 88 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 52 of their last 84 games (+15.86 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1H Spread in 51 of their last 84 games (+15.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+13.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 4-13 (-10.3 Units / -55.08% ROI).

  • 7-10 against the Moneyline (-7.95 Units / -25.36% ROI)
  • 8-8 against the Over for game total points (-0.8 Units / -4.28% ROI)
  • 8-8 against the Under for game total points (-0.8 Units / -4.28% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 6-10 (-5 Units / -28.33% ROI).

  • 8-8 against the Moneyline (-6.95 Units / -16.61% ROI)
  • 7-9 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI)
  • 9-7 against the Under for game total points (+1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 84 games (-27.66 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 88 games (-25.40 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 35 of their last 76 games (-20.54 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 88 games (-18.35 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 89 games (-18.20 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 96 games (-29.88 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 100 games (-26.76 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 100 games (-26.75 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-21.55 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 41 of their last 96 games (-19.72 Units / -19% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Timberwolves are 6-15 (.286) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .425

The Timberwolves are 28-8 (.778) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .608

The Timberwolves are 8-46 (.148) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .207

The Timberwolves are 18-41 (.305) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

Injury Report: Timberwolves vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, Nov. 21

  • Minnesota Timberwolves – No Injuries Reported
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler did not play in Sunday’s (Nov. 20) game against Cleveland.
  • Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem did not play in Sunday’s (Nov. 20) game against Cleveland.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo has not played this season and is not believed to be closed to returning to action, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro did not play in Sunday’s (Nov. 20) game against Cleveland.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent did not play in Sunday’s (Nov. 20) game against Cleveland.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 52.7 points in the paint per game (738 points/14 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Timberwolves have averaged 117.4 points per game (5,281 points/45 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 109.5

The Timberwolves shot 35% from three (944/2,706) in the 2020-21 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Timberwolves have averaged 13.7 fast break points per game (2,294 points/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 34.2 defensive rebounds per game (479 rebounds/14 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Timberwolves have averaged 8.7 steals per game (1,446 steals/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (931 blocks/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Timberwolves have averaged 33.1 defensive rebounds per game (3,146 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8


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