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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Odds, Lines, Picks & Predictions – NBA, Oct. 27

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 BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 27, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors are -6.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Thursday, October 27, 2022 at 10:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on NBCS-BA & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in San Francisco.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Warriors Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 1-4 against the spread, while the Warriors are 1-3 against the spread.

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Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+6.5 -115O 226.5 -110200
Golden State Warriors -6.5 -105U 226.5 -110-250

Warriors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Thursday‘s game with 66.5% confidence.

Warriors vs Heat Spread Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 54.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Warriors, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.

  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 53 of their last 84 games (+18.26 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 49 of their last 77 games (+18.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 93 games (+15.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 17 of their last 22 away games (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.26 Units / 34% ROI)
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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+18.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games (+12.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+11.47 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.61 Units / 16% ROI)
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    Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 1-4 (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).

    • 2-3 against the Moneyline (-3.7 Units / -42.29% ROI)
    • 2-3 against the Over for game total points (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI)
    • 3-2 against the Under for game total points (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI)

    Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

    • 2-2 against the Moneyline (-1.2 Units / -11.01% ROI)
    • 4-0 against the Over for game total points (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI)
    • 0-4 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -100% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (-31.80 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 90 games (-26.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.10 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.51 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 36 of their last 72 games (-21.15 Units / -18% ROI)
    •
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 100 games (-28.83 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 84 games (-28.62 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 88 games (-23.78 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-18.93 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 100 games (-17.60 Units / -16% ROI)
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    Jump to:

    Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

    The Miami Heat were 25-9 (.735) when they win the turnover margin last season — fifth-best among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (1,173 turnovers/82 games) last season — second-highest among NBA teams.

    The Heat were 14-10 (.583) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

    The Heat were 39-6 (.867) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .707

    The Heat are 33-12 (.733) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

    Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

    The Golden State Warriors were 24-8 (.750) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for third-best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,115 turnovers/81 games) last season — tied for third-highest among NBA teams.

    The Warriors were 38-10 (.792) when winning the rebounding margin last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .693

    The Warriors are 44-10 (.815) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .732

    The Warriors were 16-8 (.667) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

    Injury Report: Warriors vs. Heat – Thursday‘s Game, Oct. 27

  • Donte DiVincenzo (Warriors): Warriors coach Steve Kerr said DiVincenzo will be re-evaluated in a week.
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  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo isn’t traveling with the team for their upcoming three-game road trip, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Yurtseven says his goal is to be back within a week.
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    Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

    The Heat shot 39% from three (562/1,461) on the road last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

    The Heat had an eFG% of 55% last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

    The Heat had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (201 assists/ 130 TOs) in close and late situations last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

    The Heat shot 81% from the free throw line (1,401/1,730) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 77%

    Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

    The Warriors averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (1,173 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

    The Warriors have averaged 8.8 offensive rebounds per game (1,359 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.1

    The Warriors shot 47% (3,317/7,075) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

    The Warriors averaged 1.28 points per shot (9,085 points/7,075 shots) last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

    Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

    The Heat averaged 3.2 blocks per game (260 blocks/81 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

    The Heat have averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,146 rebounds/153 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

    The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (277 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

    The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (269 blocks/76 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

    Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

    The Warriors averaged 35.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,924 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

    The Warriors stole the ball 717 times last season — 3rd most among NBA teams

    The Warriors averaged 8.7 steals per game (717 steals/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

    The Warriors have averaged 35.2 defensive rebounds per game (5,414 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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