Heat vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 19

• The Warriors are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat
• Total (Over/Under): 239.5 points
• Watch the game on FSUN | NSBA

The Miami Heat visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Warriors Over/Under is 239.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 23-18 against the spread, while the Warriors are 21-22 against the spread.

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Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Warriors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Monday‘s game with 63.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Warriors.

Warriors vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 56.4% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 40 away games (+21.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 away games (+19.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 25 of their last 40 away games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)

Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have covered the 2Q Spread in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 67% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 23-18 (+3.2 Units / 6.93% ROI).

• 22-20 against the Moneyline (+1.35 Units / 1.98% ROI)
• 20-21 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -6.71% ROI)
• 21-20 against the Under for game total points (-1 Units / -2.16% ROI)

Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 21-22 (-3.2 Units / -6.77% ROI).

• 24-19 against the Moneyline (-7.9 Units / -7.13% ROI)
• 25-18 against the Over for game total points (+5.2 Units / 10.99% ROI)
• 18-25 against the Under for game total points (-9.5 Units / -20.08% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:

• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 50 games (-24.90 Units / -32% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 50 games (-22.30 Units / -39% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (-19.30 Units / -16% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 18 of their last 45 games (-12.90 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 45 games at home (-12.80 Units / -25% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 25 games (-14.10 Units / -48% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 24 games (-13.70 Units / -43% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 35 games (-12.53 Units / -26% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 35 games (-12.45 Units / -31% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 35 games (-12.20 Units / -30% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Keys to Winning for the Golden State Warriors
• Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Golden State Warriors Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats
• Golden State Warriors Defensive stats

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat were 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .354

The Heat were 9-15 (.375) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Heat were 6-13 (.316) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Warriors have averaged 38.9 points in the paint per game (816 points/21 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5

The Warriors have averaged 21.3 points in the paint per game (916 points/43 games) in the first half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

The Warriors have made 15.1 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

The Warriors have made 15.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat were 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .354

The Heat were 9-15 (.375) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Heat were 6-13 (.316) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 38.9 points in the paint per game (816 points/21 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5

The Warriors have averaged 21.3 points in the paint per game (916 points/43 games) in the first half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

The Warriors have made 15.1 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

The Warriors have made 15.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659

The Heat were 6-21 (.222) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .354

The Heat were 9-15 (.375) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Heat were 6-13 (.316) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 38.9 points in the paint per game (816 points/21 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5

The Warriors have averaged 21.3 points in the paint per game (916 points/43 games) in the first half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

The Warriors have made 15.1 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

The Warriors have made 15.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

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