Entering the 2026-27 season, the Miami Heat have an over/under of 46.5 in the NBA win totals market at BetMGM.
Heat Over/Under Wins 2026-27
Heat Win Total Prediction
- Under 46.5 wins (-125) — Pick made on Aug. 19
My Heat win total prediction prefers the under at 46.5 in their first season since trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In order to land Antetokounmpo, Miami sent Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, and draft picks. The Heat finally got their star, but it cost them depth and a cohesive roster.
Miami’s starting rotation of Davion Mitchell, Tim Hardaway Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, and Antetokounmpo could have some potential on the defensive end of the floor. But I question the spacing of the half-court offense. It will certainly take some time for Antetokounmpo and Adebayo to learn how to play together.
If the Heat deal with any notable injuries, there isn’t much depth to rely on outside of Bobby Portis. That is certainly a concern given that Antetokounmpo played just 36 games last year after missing 15 contests in 2024-25.
The market is baking in some risk with the Heat by listing their over/under at 46.5, but it’s still their second-highest preseason win total since LeBron James left the team more than a decade ago. Miami’s over/under was nine games lower last year before finishing with 43 wins.
Perhaps it all clicks heading into the postseason, but I’m projecting enough growing pains and depth concerns to fade the Heat’s win total this year.
Heat Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37.5 | 43 | Over |
| 2024-25 | 44.5 | 37 | Under |
| 2023-24 | 45.5 | 46 | Over |
| 2022-23 | 49.5 | 44 | Under |
| 2021-22 | 48.5 | 53 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 43.5 | 40 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 43.5 | 44 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 43 | 39 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 43.5 | 44 | Over |
| 2016-17 | 34.5 | 41 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 46.5 | 48 | Over |
| 2014-15 | 44 | 37 | Under |
| 2013-14 | 61.5 | 54 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 60.5 | 66 | Over |
| 2011-12 | 47.5 | 46 | Under |
| 2010-11 | 64.5 | 58 | Under |
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