The Miami Heat have a win total of 37.5 via the BetMGM online sportsbook ahead of the 2025-26 NBA season.
The Heat have alternated finishing over or under their NBA betting win total for five straight seasons. Will that streak continue after finishing under last year’s mark?
Heat Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 37.5 wins: -120
- Under 37.5 wins: +100
Heat Win Total Prediction
- Over 37.5 wins (Pick made on July 24)
I’m not just following Miami’s recent trend when it comes to preseason win totals. This over/under feels disrespectful, given the current state of the Eastern Conference.
Miami won 37 games last year, earning the No. 8 seed before losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 1. However, there are two reasons why I’m predicting the Heat to take a step forward this year:
- The top of the East got worse.
- The Heat improved their roster.
Starting with the first point, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers (the last two East champs) are positioned for a gap year with their best players recovering from season-long injuries. The Cavs enter as the best team in the conference, but it’s wide open after that.
Miami is unlikely to leap to the top of the East, but this roster is better than a play-in team after some notable upgrades. The Heat traded scraps for Norman Powell, who was a fringe All-Star last year after averaging 21.8 points per game. They also added Simone Fontechhio.
All of a sudden, the Heat have a roster that makes a lot of sense on paper. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo will continue to lead the way as a duo. I’m also expecting strong campaigns from Andrew Wiggins (acquired at the trade deadline) and second-year center Kel’el Ware.
In addition, the Heat are always lurking as a possible destination for a disgruntled star. Even if that doesn’t happen, though, I like Miami’s chances of clearing its lowest preseason win total since 2016-17.
The Heat haven’t had consecutive losing seasons since 2003, which led to them drafting Dwyane Wade. I don’t see that streak ending this year.
Heat Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 44.5 | 37 | Under |
| 2023-24 | 45.5 | 46 | Over |
| 2022-23 | 49.5 | 44 | Under |
| 2021-22 | 48.5 | 53 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 43.5 | 40 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 43.5 | 44 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 43 | 39 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 43.5 | 44 | Over |
| 2016-17 | 34.5 | 41 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 46.5 | 48 | Over |
| 2014-15 | 44 | 37 | Under |
| 2013-14 | 61.5 | 54 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 60.5 | 66 | Over |
| 2011-12 | 47.5 | 46 | Under |
| 2010-11 | 64.5 | 58 | Under |
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