Jazz vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 13, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat (36-33) are -7.5 favorites vs. the Jazz (33-35)
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Monday, March 13, 2023 at 7:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSSUN & SportsNet RM

The Utah Jazz visit Miami-Dade Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Jazz vs Heat Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Jazz are 37-31 against the spread, while the Heat are 25-42 against the spread.


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Jazz vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Utah Jazz+8.5 -115O 225.5 -115+260
Miami Heat -8.5 -105U 225.5 -115-350

Heat vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 66.6% confidence.

Heat vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jazz and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 away games (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 83 games (+10.79 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 2H Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+10.03 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+9.82 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 37-31 (+2.9 Units / 3.87% ROI).

  • 33-35 against the Moneyline (-13.7 Units / -11.89% ROI)
  • 37-29 against the Over for game total points (+5.1 Units / 6.82% ROI)
  • 29-37 against the Under for game total points (-11.7 Units / -15.64% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 25-42 (-21.2 Units / -27.93% ROI).

  • 36-33 against the Moneyline (-17 Units / -13.27% ROI)
  • 31-37 against the Over for game total points (-9.7 Units / -12.78% ROI)
  • 37-31 against the Under for game total points (+2.9 Units / 3.82% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 69 games (-24.71 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 27 of their last 75 games (-23.60 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 89 games (-22.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 24 of their last 59 games (-22.23 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 28 of their last 72 games (-20.84 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 50 games (-27.55 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 57 games (-27.44 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 55 games (-27.10 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 84 games (-26.20 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 76 games (-23.65 Units / -23% ROI)

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Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Jazz are winless (0-12) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .143

The Jazz are 45-24 (.652) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .504

The Jazz are 70-34 (.673) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Jazz are 51-27 (.654) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Heat are 45-14 (.763) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Heat are 29-13 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Heat are 18-6 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .675

The Heat are 24-15 (.615) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Injury Report: Heat vs. JazzMonday‘s Game, Mar. 13

  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic has been out since Dec. 26 and remains without a timetable for return.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is questionable for Monday’s (Mar. 13) game against Utah.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): The Heat placed Robinson in the league’s health and safety protocols.
  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is questionable for Monday’s (Mar. 13) game against Utah.
  • Cody Zeller (Heat): Zeller is out for Monday’s (Mar. 13) game against Utah.
  • Collin Sexton (Jazz): The Jazz have ruled out Sexton for another week, according to Tony Jones of The Athletic.
  • Jordan Clarkson (Jazz): Clarkson is questionable for Monday’s (Mar. 13) game against Miami.

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have made 15.2 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Jazz have made 15.4 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7

The Jazz have averaged 117.1 points per game (6,910 points/59 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Jazz averaged 116.4 points per game (8,382 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.4 points per game (3,033 points/59 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0

The Heat have averaged 108.0 points per game (6,374 points/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Heat are shooting 32% from three (316/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Heat have averaged 52.4 points per game (7,395 points/141 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.9

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (7,572 rebounds/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Jazz have averaged 6.6 steals per game (492 steals/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Jazz have averaged 6.8 steals per game (1,452 steals/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Jazz have averaged 6.9 steals per game (978 steals/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (438 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (173 blocks/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (205 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (724 blocks/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.