Jazz vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Thunder (29-34) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Jazz (31-33)
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
  • Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 7:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSOK & SportsNet RM

The Utah Jazz visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Jazz vs Thunder Over/Under is 235.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Jazz are 34-30 against the spread, while the Thunder are 38-24 against the spread.


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Jazz vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Utah Jazz+6.5 -110O 235.5 -110+200
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 -110U 235.5 -110-250

Thunder vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 65.3% confidence.

Thunder vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Jazz will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.4% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jazz and Thunder, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+12.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+10.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 2H Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.57 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+32.52 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 43 games at home (+21.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+20.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 47 of their last 77 games (+15.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 34-30 (+1 Units / 1.42% ROI).

  • 31-33 against the Moneyline (-14.25 Units / -12.83% ROI)
  • 34-29 against the Over for game total points (+2.1 Units / 2.98% ROI)
  • 29-34 against the Under for game total points (-8.4 Units / -11.93% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 38-24 (+11.7 Units / 16.9% ROI).

  • 29-34 against the Moneyline (+13.15 Units / 16.69% ROI)
  • 36-26 against the Over for game total points (+7.4 Units / 10.68% ROI)
  • 26-36 against the Under for game total points (-13.6 Units / -19.62% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 82 games (-31.65 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 66 games (-23.42 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 82 games (-21.02 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 81 games (-19.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 82 games (-18.75 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 90 games (-31.55 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 53 games (-30.60 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 46 games (-28.90 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 games (-27.65 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 72 games (-23.85 Units / -24% ROI)

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Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Jazz are winless (0-12) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .143

The Jazz are 45-24 (.652) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .504

The Jazz are 70-34 (.673) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Jazz are 51-27 (.654) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 19-68 (.218) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Utah Jazz have averaged 45.8 rebounds per game (6,454 rebounds/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-43 (.157) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Utah Jazz made 14.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-highest among NBA teams.

The Thunder are 26-45 (.366) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Thunder are 24-41 (.369) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Injury Report: Thunder vs. JazzSunday‘s Game, Mar. 5

  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren is moving around is shooting again, according to Quenton Albertie of Clutch Points. He’s not expected to play this season as he recovers from a Lisfranc injury.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Pokusevski is starting to shoot again, according to Andrew Schlecht of The Athletic. No timetable has been announced for his return to action.
  • Kenrich Williams (Thunder): The Thunder announced that Williams suffered a ligament rupture in his left wrist.
  • Collin Sexton (Jazz): Sexton is out for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Lauri Markkanen (Jazz): Markkanen is out for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against Oklahoma City.

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have made 15.2 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Jazz have made 15.4 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7

The Jazz have averaged 117.1 points per game (6,910 points/59 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Jazz averaged 116.4 points per game (8,382 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 1.18 points per shot (11,288 points/9,537 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (2,353 assists/ 1,467 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Thunder have averaged 1.20 points per shot (22,998 points/19,141 shots) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Thunder are shooting 43% (4,145/9,537) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (7,572 rebounds/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Jazz have averaged 6.6 steals per game (492 steals/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Jazz have averaged 6.8 steals per game (1,452 steals/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Jazz have averaged 6.9 steals per game (978 steals/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 32.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,912 rebounds/59 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Thunder have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (7,367 rebounds/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Thunder have 1,109 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (459 blocks/106 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.