Knicks vs. Hawks: NBA Playoffs Round 1 Odds & Prediction

The No. 3 seed New York Knicks will face the No. 6 seed Atlanta Hawks in what could be the most compelling Round 1 series of the 2026 NBA playoffs.

New York is a -300 series favorite, but Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past two months. The Hawks finished the year with a 20-6 record after the All-Star break.

Will the Hawks maintain their momentum to spring an upset over a Knicks team with championship aspirations?

Knicks vs. Hawks Round 1 Odds

• Knicks series moneyline: -300
• Hawks series moneyline: +240
• Over 5.5 games: -145
• Under 5.5 games +120

Knicks vs. Hawks Round 1 Prediction

Based on the latest NBA odds, my Knicks vs. Hawks Round 1 prediction is on New York to win Game 1 and the series (-125).

The reason for this being my favorite way to approach this series is two-fold:

• New York is excellent at home.
• Atlanta’s late-season finish might be a bit fake.

Starting with the Knicks’ home-court advantage, they finished the regular season with the third-best net rating (+10.3) in the league when playing at home. New York went 30-10 in Madison Square Garden, thanks to an NBA-best offensive rating of 120.8 at home.

Given the expectations for the Knicks entering the postseason, I expect them to take care of business at home, especially in Saturday’s Game 1. New York is a -220 favorite to win the opener this weekend.

But the reason I’m comfortable exploring the game/series double market at BetMGM is that I’m fading the final stretch by Atlanta.

Don’t get me wrong, the Hawks deserve a ton of credit for climbing into the playoff picture after looking like a play-in team for much of the year. But spring results in the NBA can be a bit fluky, especially when at least one-third of the league was actively trying to lose games.

A big reason Atlanta won so many games down the stretch was its defense. The Hawks ranked second in points per 100 possessions allowed and ninth in defensive effective field goal rate over the final 26 contests.

For comparison, Atlanta ranked 17th and 21st, respectively, before the All-Star break.

Considering the Knicks are an elite offensive team (fourth in offensive rating), I think that context matters when assessing this series. If the Hawks aren’t able to maintain their recent defensive level, I don’t know if they can pull off the upset.

Best bet: Knicks win Game 1 & series (-125)

Knicks vs. Hawks Game 1 Odds