After completing the largest comeback in NBA Finals history in Game 4, the New York Knicks are one win away from an NBA championship. They will face the San Antonio Spurs on the road in Game 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Frost Bank Center on ABC.
San Antonio is a 5.5-point NBA betting favorite to stave off elimination. Read on for my Knicks vs. Spurs prediction for Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals:
Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction: Game 5 on June 13
- Spurs 1Q spread (-1.5)
I like San Antonio’s first-quarter spread (-1.5) for my Knicks vs. Spurs prediction ahead of Saturday’s Game 5.
The Spurs have made it a habit of getting off to a strong start in this series. They’ve led by at least 10 points in the first quarter of all four games. BetMGM even offered a market on the Spurs to lead by double digits in the first quarter of Game 4.
So far in this series, the Spurs have a net rating of +46.6 in the first quarter. Their offensive rating is 136.4, and their defensive rating is 89.8.
Check out the scores at the end of the first quarter in each game:
- Game 1: Spurs 27, Knicks 19
- Game 2: Spurs 34, Knicks 25
- Game 3: Spurs 33, Knicks 22
- Game 4: Spurs 41, Knicks 22
The Spurs have led by at least eight points after the opening period in all four games. Their average lead has been 11.7.
Facing a 3-1 series deficit, there is always a concern that San Antonio rolls over in Game 5. However, that’s not what the Spurs did when they faced elimination twice in the Western Conference finals. And the latest betting odds (5.5-point spread) don’t suggest this is a roll-over spot for the Spurs.
If anything, I question the Knicks’ motivation in this situation. They completed a 29-point comeback to steal Game 4 at home. There is a chance they are content to finish the series at Madison Square Garden in Game 6.
Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sluggish start from New York and an inspired opening effort from San Antonio on Saturday.
Prediction: Spurs first-quarter spread (-1.5)
Knicks vs. Spurs Odds for Game 5
- Knicks spread: +5.5
- Spurs spread: -5.5
- Total: 216.5
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