Lakers vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 9

• The Warriors are -4.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
• Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
• Watch the game on Amazon

The Los Angeles Lakers visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 pm in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Lakers vs Warriors Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Lakers are 43-36 against the spread, while the Warriors are 35-44 against the spread.

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Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Warriors vs Lakers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Thursday‘s game with 68.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Lakers and Warriors.

Warriors vs Lakers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.

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Lakers Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.65 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+14.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.18 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Los Angeles Lakers Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 43-36 (+3.4 Units / 3.91% ROI).

• 50-29 against the Moneyline (+15.5 Units / 8.02% ROI)
• 41-37 against the Over for game total points (+0.3 Units / 0.35% ROI)
• 37-41 against the Under for game total points (-8.1 Units / -9.32% ROI)

Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 35-44 (-13.4 Units / -15.42% ROI).

• 37-42 against the Moneyline (-19.4 Units / -10.67% ROI)
• 47-32 against the Over for game total points (+11.8 Units / 13.58% ROI)
• 32-47 against the Under for game total points (-19.7 Units / -22.67% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:

• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 45 games (-27.55 Units / -43% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 45 games (-21.65 Units / -42% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 50 games (-20.65 Units / -36% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 40 games (-18.60 Units / -34% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 45 games at home (-18.10 Units / -24% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Lakers:

• The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games (-20.40 Units / -28% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.65 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 1H Spread in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.85 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 30 away games (-15.60 Units / -36% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 games (-15.45 Units / -22% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Los Angeles Lakers
• Keys to Winning for the Golden State Warriors
• Player Injuries for Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
• Los Angeles Lakers Offensive stats
• Golden State Warriors Offensive stats
• Los Angeles Lakers Defensive stats
• Golden State Warriors Defensive stats

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Lakers are 75-34 (.688) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 14.7 turnovers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-7th-highest in the NBA.

The Lakers are 45-23 (.662) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .498

The Lakers are 44-22 (.667) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .502

The Lakers are 37-13 (.740) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Warriors are 22-23 (.489) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Warriors are 2-15 (.118) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .213

The Warriors are 64-14 (.821) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .696

The Warriors are 8-4 (.667) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have a 29% free throw rate (6,024 free throw attempts/20,804 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The Lakers have averaged 1.39 points per shot (9,189 points/6,621 shots) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Lakers are shooting 51% (1,661/3,266) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Lakers are shooting 50% (3,313/6,621) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have made 15.8 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.3

The Warriors have averaged 21.3 points in the paint per game (1,682 points/79 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2

The Warriors have 21.0 free throw attempts per game this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Warriors have averaged 12.1 fast break points per game (955 points/79 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,675 rebounds/79 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Lakers have averaged 7.7 steals per game (939 steals/122 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Lakers have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (339 blocks/79 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Lakers have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (706 blocks/161 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 10.3 steals per game (823 steals/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Warriors have averaged 9.8 steals per game (773 steals/79 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Warriors have averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,637 rebounds/79 games) this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Warriors have averaged 8.7 steals per game (2,116 steals/243 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

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