Mavericks vs Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Grizzlies (39-26) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (34-33)
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSE & BSSW

The Dallas Mavericks visit FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Memphis.

The Grizzlies are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Grizzlies Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 23-41 against the spread, while the Grizzlies are 31-32 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+5.5 -115O 224.5 -110+155
Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 -105U 224.5 -110-190

Grizzlies vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Grizzlies will win Saturday‘s game with 61.8% confidence.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Grizzlies, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.87 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+7.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.92 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.36 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 46 games at home (+27.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 81 games (+23.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 46 games at home (+22.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1H Spread in 55 of their last 88 games (+20.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+14.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 23-41 (-22.05 Units / -29.94% ROI).

  • 34-33 against the Moneyline (-20.15 Units / -13.71% ROI)
  • 37-29 against the Over for game total points (+5.1 Units / 6.92% ROI)
  • 29-37 against the Under for game total points (-11.7 Units / -15.88% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 31-32 (-4.2 Units / -5.87% ROI).

  • 39-26 against the Moneyline (-2.65 Units / -1.65% ROI)
  • 27-35 against the Over for game total points (-11.5 Units / -16.08% ROI)
  • 35-27 against the Under for game total points (+5.3 Units / 7.41% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 91 games (-38.94 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 85 games (-34.54 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 69 games (-29.91 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 34 games (-23.03 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 92 games (-20.58 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 58 games (-28.89 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 24 of their last 72 games (-25.45 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 72 games (-23.70 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 20 of their last 58 games (-22.33 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 82 games (-21.44 Units / -22% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Mavericks are 36-19 (.655) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Mavericks are 20-5 (.800) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Mavericks are 43-38 (.531) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Mavericks are 44-22 (.667) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Memphis Grizzlies are 3-12 (.200) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — tied for seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets has shot 39% from three (742/1,882) this season — best among NBA teams.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin this season — third-best among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets have averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (856 turnovers/60 games) this season — tied for sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 59-23 (.720) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-best among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets have averaged 14.0 turnovers per game (1,991 turnovers/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Grizzlies are 40-21 (.656) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Injury Report: Grizzlies vs. MavericksSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • Vince Williams Jr. (Grizzlies): Williams is out for Saurday’s (Mar.11) game against Dallas.
  • Steven Adams (Grizzlies): The Grizzlies announced that Adams continues to recover and will be re-evaluated in about four weeks.
  • Brandon Clarke (Grizzlies): Clarke will miss the rest of the season with a left Achilles tear, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Jake LaRavia (Grizzlies): LaRavia did not play in Thursday’s game (Mar. 9).
  • Reggie Bullock (Mavericks): Bullock is probable for Saturday’s (Mar. 11) game against Memphis.
  • Luka Doncic (Mavericks): Doncic is out for Saturday’s (Mar. 11) game against Memphis.
  • Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): Irving is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar. 11) game against Memphis.
  • JaVale McGee (Mavericks): McGee is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar. 11) game against Memphis.

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 39.7 points in the paint per game (1,232 points/31 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Mavericks have averaged 12.3 turnovers per game (1,333 turnovers/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Mavericks have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (883 turnovers/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Mavericks have averaged 9.2 fast break points per game (286 points/31 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies have a TS% of 43% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%

The Grizzlies have averaged 28.3 points in the paint per game (6,006 points/212 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.2

The Grizzlies have averaged 17.0 second chance points per game (1,798 points/106 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.4

The Grizzlies have averaged 60.0 points in the paint per game (4,200 points/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.9

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (272 blocks/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (970 steals/146 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (563 blocks/146 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (418 steals/64 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.4 steals per game (655 steals/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.1 steals per game (1,939 steals/212 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.2 steals per game (1,284 steals/140 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Grizzlies have averaged 6.8 blocks per game (479 blocks/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.