Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 06, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (14-9) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (12-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 10:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on TNT & BSSW

The Dallas Mavericks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 7-15 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 11-12 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+5.5 -115O 222.5 -110+165
Denver Nuggets -5.5 -105U 222.5 -110-200

Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 61.5% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 67 of their last 100 games (+31.46 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+7.66 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 52 of their last 88 games (+12.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 44 of their last 75 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 49 of their last 87 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 7-15 (-9.5 Units / -37.55% ROI).

  • 12-11 against the Moneyline (-16.35 Units / -29.09% ROI)
  • 14-9 against the Over for game total points (+4.1 Units / 16.21% ROI)
  • 9-14 against the Under for game total points (-6.4 Units / -25.3% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 11-12 (-2.2 Units / -8.7% ROI).

  • 14-9 against the Moneyline (-0.6 Units / -1.02% ROI)
  • 11-12 against the Over for game total points (-2.2 Units / -8.7% ROI)
  • 12-11 against the Under for game total points (-0.1 Units / -0.4% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 35 of their last 88 games (-42.04 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 88 games (-26.20 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (-22.40 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 36 of their last 88 games (-20.86 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 87 games (-19.00 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 100 games (-43.69 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 28 games (-19.90 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 97 games (-19.69 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 75 games (-14.85 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 away games (-14.13 Units / -23% ROI)

Jump to:

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. MavericksTuesday‘s Game, Dec. 6

  • Peyton Watson (Nuggets): Watson is questionable for Tuesday’s (Dec. 6) game against Dallas.
  • Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets): Nuggets coach Michael Malone said that Porter doesn’t have a timeframe for a return.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets): Caldwell-Pope is questionable for Tuesday’s (Dec. 6) game against Dallas.
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is questionable for Tuesday’s (Dec. 6) game against Dallas.
  • Dallas Mavericks – No Injuries Reported

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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