Mavericks vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 8

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Dallas Mavericks logo on the left and New Orleans Pelicans logo on the right
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 08, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks (34-32) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans (31-34)
  • Total (Over/Under): 233.5 points
  • Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSNO & BSSW

The Dallas Mavericks visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in New Orleans.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Pelicans Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 23-40 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 29-35 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks-2.5 -105O 233.5 -115-140
New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 -115U 233.5 -115+115

Pelicans vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Wednesday‘s game with 51.8% confidence.

Pelicans vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Pelicans, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.02 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 92 games (+6.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 57 games (+21.09 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 25 games (+18.81 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 23-40 (-20.95 Units / -28.88% ROI).

  • 34-32 against the Moneyline (-18.8 Units / -12.91% ROI)
  • 37-28 against the Over for game total points (+6.2 Units / 8.54% ROI)
  • 28-37 against the Under for game total points (-12.7 Units / -17.49% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 29-35 (-9.5 Units / -13.3% ROI).

  • 31-34 against the Moneyline (-11.2 Units / -10.47% ROI)
  • 33-32 against the Over for game total points (-2.2 Units / -3.08% ROI)
  • 32-33 against the Under for game total points (-4.3 Units / -6.01% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 59 games (-28.80 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 84 games (-21.80 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 22 of their last 56 games (-20.82 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 56 games (-20.17 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 86 games (-20.15 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 57 games (-27.57 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 24 of their last 71 games (-24.35 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.96 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 81 games (-22.44 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 71 games (-22.35 Units / -15% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Mavericks are 36-19 (.655) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Mavericks are 20-5 (.800) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Mavericks are 43-38 (.531) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Mavericks are 44-22 (.667) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The New Orleans Pelicans are 7-30 (.189) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors made 15.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among NBA teams.

The New Orleans Pelicans are 4-19 (.174) when losing the rebounding margin this season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors have averaged 44.6 rebounds per game (2,676 rebounds/60 games) this season — ninth-highest among NBA teams.

The New Orleans Pelicans are 10-40 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors have averaged 45.1 rebounds per game (6,406 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Pelicans are 7-30 (.189) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .307

Injury Report: Pelicans vs. MavericksWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 8

  • E.J. Liddell (Pelicans): Liddell is doing some light shooting and is making progress from a torn right ACL, according to Cody Taylor of The USA Today. He’s expected to miss most of the season.
  • Larry Nance Jr. (Pelicans): Nance Jr. will be re-evaluated in two weeks, according to Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated.
  • Zion Williamson (Pelicans): Williamson suffered a setback and will be sidelined several more weeks, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com.
  • Jose Alvarado (Pelicans): Alvarado will be re-evaluated in three weeks after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right tibia, per Rotowire.
  • Reggie Bullock (Mavericks): Bullock left Tuesday’s (Mar 7) game and did not return.
  • JaVale McGee (Mavericks): McGee did not play in Tuesday’s (Mar. 7) game against Utah.

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 39.7 points in the paint per game (1,232 points/31 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Mavericks have averaged 12.3 turnovers per game (1,333 turnovers/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Mavericks have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (883 turnovers/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Mavericks have averaged 9.2 fast break points per game (286 points/31 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 14.9 fast break points per game (895 points/60 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Pelicans have a 28% free throw rate (2,688 free throw attempts/9,484 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The Pelicans have averaged 14.8 second chance points per game (887 points/60 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Pelicans have averaged 25.4 points in the paint per game (5,436 points/214 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.2

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (272 blocks/74 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (970 steals/146 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (563 blocks/146 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (418 steals/64 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (886 blocks/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Pelicans have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (430 blocks/107 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pelicans have averaged 8.6 steals per game (513 steals/60 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Pelicans have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/60 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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