For the midpoint of the NBA’s five-game Christmas Day slate, the Golden State Warriors will host the Dallas Mavericks at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday at the Chase Center on ABC/ESPN.
Both teams have underwhelmed during the 2025-26 season. The Warriors are currently a play-in team after being viewed as a dark horse Western Conference contender before the year. The Mavs, meanwhile, might have to fight just to make the play-in tournament.
Could a win on Christmas Day help get one of these teams back on track?
Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Under 227.5 (-105) – Prediction made Wednesday
Based on the updated NBA betting lines, I like the under on the full-game total for my Mavericks vs. Warriors prediction on NBA Christmas Day.
This total is the lowest (by three points) on the board for a reason. Both teams have struggled on offense while posting solid defensive numbers.
Golden State is third in the league in defensive rating, but its placement in offensive rating (21st) is why this team has underwhelmed this year. Stephen Curry can only carry the offense so much at 37 years old.
As for Dallas, Kyrie Irving’s injury has prevented this team from having a primary creator. The Mavs started the year by playing Cooper Flagg out of position. Since then, Brandon Williams, D’Angelo Russell, and Ryan Nembhard have taken their turn as the team’s primary point guard.
The Mavericks rank 27th in the league in offensive rating, only ahead of the Washington Wizards, Sacramento Kings, and the Indiana Pacers. They are ninth in defensive rating, which has helped them post a 54.8% clip to the under.
The market has long adjusted to lower totals on Christmas Day, but this is a spot where banking on a defensive battle is the way to go.
Prediction: Under 227.5
Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds for NBA Christmas Day
- Mavericks spread: +8.5
- Warriors spread: -8.5
- Total: 227.5
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