Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 04, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors (26-26) are -10.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (28-25)
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 8:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on ABC & ABC

The Dallas Mavericks visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in San Francisco.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Mavericks vs Warriors Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 17-33 against the spread, while the Warriors are 24-27 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+9.5 -110O 225.5 -110+340
Golden State Warriors -9.5 -110U 225.5 -110-450

Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Saturday‘s game with 73.2% confidence.

Warriors vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Warriors, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+22.88 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 49 of their last 88 games (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.64 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+18.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games (+14.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+14.47 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 17-33 (-19.25 Units / -33.05% ROI).

  • 28-25 against the Moneyline (-17.75 Units / -15.63% ROI)
  • 28-25 against the Over for game total points (+0.5 Units / 0.86% ROI)
  • 25-28 against the Under for game total points (-5.8 Units / -9.95% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 24-27 (-5.7 Units / -9.97% ROI).

  • 26-26 against the Moneyline (-25.1 Units / -20.74% ROI)
  • 30-21 against the Over for game total points (+6.9 Units / 12.06% ROI)
  • 21-30 against the Under for game total points (-12 Units / -20.98% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-31.46 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 99 games (-27.60 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 100 games (-26.54 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 98 games (-23.63 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 96 games (-21.13 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 100 games (-35.57 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 44 games (-26.74 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 89 games (-26.56 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 18 of their last 58 games (-22.65 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 46 of their last 98 games (-22.07 Units / -16% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Mavericks are 86-20 (.811) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .679

The Mavericks are 63-11 (.851) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .692

The Mavericks are 31-6 (.838) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .770

The Mavericks are 41-34 (.547) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .458

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Warriors are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Warriors are 26-12 (.684) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .577

The Warriors are 50-9 (.847) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .781

The Warriors are 63-26 (.708) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .578

Injury Report: Warriors vs. MavericksSaturday‘s Game, Feb. 4

  • Draymond Green (Warriors): Green is questionable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Dallas.
  • Klay Thompson (Warriors): Thompson is questionable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Dallas.
  • Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Warriors): Baldwin Jr. is questionable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Dallas.
  • Stephen Curry (Warriors): Curry is probable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Dallas.
  • Andre Iguodala (Warriors): Iguodala hasn’t played since Jan. 13 against San Antonio and it’s unclear when he’ll return to the lineup.
  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Kleber hopes to return prior to the All-Star break, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com.
  • Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavericks): Dinwiddie is questionable for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Golden State.
  • Luka Doncic (Mavericks): Doncic is out for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Golden State.
  • Christian Wood (Mavericks): Wood suffered a fractured left thumb and will be re-evaluated in one week, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
  • Davis Bertans (Mavericks): Bertans is out for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Golden State.

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 42.0 points in the paint per game (2,014 points/48 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.9

The Mavericks have averaged 42.0 points in the paint per game (2,688 points/64 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.7

The Mavericks have averaged 7.8 offensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/48 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.5

The Mavericks have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (572 turnovers/48 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have made 16.4 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors have made 15.6 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Warriors have 20.3 free throw attempts per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.6

The Warriors have 20.3 free throw attempts per game this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.8

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (251 blocks/66 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (829 blocks/202 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 30.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,481 rebounds/48 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Mavericks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (1,317 steals/202 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 34.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,017 rebounds/201 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Warriors have averaged 8.1 steals per game (1,050 steals/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have averaged 35.1 defensive rebounds per game (4,527 rebounds/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Warriors have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (181 blocks/47 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.