Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 28, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The 76ers (31-16) are -3.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets (34-15)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 3:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ABC & ABC

The Denver Nuggets visit Wells Fargo Center to take on the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Philadelphia.

The 76ers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs 76ers Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 25-23 against the spread, while the 76ers are 27-20 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. 76ers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+3.5 -115O 231.5 -115+120
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 -105U 231.5 -115-145

76ers vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 76ers will win Saturday‘s game with 57.9% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and 76ers, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.46 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 48 games (+15.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 52 of their last 89 games (+12.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+12.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 74 games (+12.39 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.69 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 42 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 25-23 (-0.3 Units / -0.56% ROI).

  • 34-15 against the Moneyline (+12.35 Units / 9.4% ROI)
  • 22-27 against the Over for game total points (-7.7 Units / -14.29% ROI)
  • 27-22 against the Under for game total points (+2.8 Units / 5.19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the 76ers have gone 27-20 (+4.95 Units / 9.57% ROI).

  • 31-16 against the Moneyline (-0.3 Units / -0.27% ROI)
  • 28-19 against the Over for game total points (+7.1 Units / 13.73% ROI)
  • 19-28 against the Under for game total points (-11.8 Units / -22.82% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 35 of their last 77 games (-26.31 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 65 games (-22.84 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only covered the 3Q Spread in 17 of their last 53 games (-22.06 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 84 games (-21.75 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia 76ers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 53 games (-21.63 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 86 games (-26.53 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 72 games (-25.77 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 89 games (-24.85 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 86 games (-19.93 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 3Q Spread in 37 of their last 87 games (-17.36 Units / -18% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia 76ers

The Denver Nuggets are 15-1 (.938) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 14.6 turnovers per game (688 turnovers/47 games) this season — tied for sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 13.8 turnovers per game (1,777 turnovers/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-highest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 35-6 (.854) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

The Nuggets are 40-8 (.833) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

Philadelphia 76ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Philadelphia 76ers are 39-7 (.848) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-best among NBA teams. The Brooklyn Nets have averaged 43.0 rebounds per game (5,509 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-lowest among NBA teams.

The 76ers are 99-19 (.839) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .679

The 76ers are 67-15 (.817) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .724

The 76ers are 39-7 (.848) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .686

Injury Report: 76ers vs. NuggetsSaturday‘s Game, Jan. 28

  • Joel Embiid (76ers): Embiid is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Denver.
  • Furkan Korkmaz (76ers): Korkmaz did not play in Wednesday’s (Jan. 25) game against Brooklyn.
  • Bruce Brown (Nuggets): Brown is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.
  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): Jokic is probable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.
  • Jack White (Nuggets): White is out for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie remains without a timetable to make his NBA debut, according to Katy Winge of Altitude Sports.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets): Caldwell-Pope is probable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.
  • Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets): Porter Jr. is questionable for Saturday’s (Jan.28) game against Philadelphia.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (88/209) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,924/5,710) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,579/8,970) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Philadelphia 76ers Offensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have averaged 8.6 offensive rebounds per game (1,095 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.4

The 76ers have averaged 8.6 offensive rebounds per game (395 rebounds/46 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.5

The 76ers have averaged 5.0 second chance points per game (230 points/46 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The 76ers have a 29% free throw rate (4,866 free throw attempts/17,003 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2020-21 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (512 blocks/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (835 blocks/201 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (397 blocks/98 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (438 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Philadelphia 76ers Defensive Stats & Trends

The 76ers have averaged 32.1 defensive rebounds per game (1,476 rebounds/46 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The 76ers have 999 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th most among NBA teams

The 76ers have averaged 8.0 steals per game (789 steals/99 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The 76ers have averaged 8.0 steals per game (366 steals/46 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.