Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 20

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks (9-6) are -10.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets (9-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSW & ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Dallas.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Mavericks Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 6-9 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 4-10 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+10.5 -115O 217.5 -110375
Dallas Mavericks -10.5 -105U 217.5 -110-500

Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Sunday‘s game with 71.7% confidence.

Mavericks vs Nuggets Spread Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+16.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games (+15.54 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 29 of their last 46 away games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 93 games (+28.72 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 games at home (+19.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+16.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 1Q Spread in 57 of their last 96 games (+14.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 6-9 (-3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • 9-6 against the Moneyline (+0.3 Units / 0.88% ROI)
  • 8-7 against the Over for game total points (+0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI)
  • 7-8 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 4-10 (-7 Units / -42.42% ROI).

  • 9-6 against the Moneyline (-7.65 Units / -18.84% ROI)
  • 9-6 against the Over for game total points (+2.4 Units / 14.55% ROI)
  • 6-9 against the Under for game total points (-3.9 Units / -23.64% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 99 games (-40.39 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 46 of their last 98 games (-23.66 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 50 games at home (-21.40 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 100 games (-18.51 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 97 games (-14.70 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 33 of their last 86 games (-41.95 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 86 games (-26.95 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 86 games (-26.30 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 66 games (-24.60 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 86 games (-21.00 Units / -22% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, Nov. 20

  • Davis Bertans (Mavericks): Bertans has yet to play this season and no timetable for his return has been announced.
  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Kleber did not play in Friday’s game (Nov. 18).
  • Ish Smith (Nuggets): Smith did not play in Friday’s game (Nov. 18).
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): The Nuggets placed Jokic in the league’s health and safety protocols.
  • Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): Gordon is out for Friday’s (Nov. 18) game against Dallas.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): The Nuggets placed Murray in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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