Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 10, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (46-20) are -12.5 favorites vs. the Spurs (16-49)
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5 points
  • Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSW & ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit AT&T Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in San Antonio.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Spurs Over/Under is 235.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 36-29 against the spread, while the Spurs are 26-39 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-12.5 -115O 235.5 -115-900
San Antonio Spurs +12.5 -105U 235.5 -115+575

Spurs vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 72.0% confidence.

Spurs vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Spurs will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 54.5% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Spurs, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 45 of their last 62 games (+25.67 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 65 games (+18.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 52 of their last 87 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.37 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.38 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 80 games (+10.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 1Q Spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 36-29 (+4.1 Units / 5.65% ROI).

  • 46-20 against the Moneyline (+15.75 Units / 9.05% ROI)
  • 33-33 against the Over for game total points (-3.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 33-33 against the Under for game total points (-3.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 26-39 (-16.9 Units / -23.64% ROI).

  • 16-49 against the Moneyline (-12.35 Units / -18.8% ROI)
  • 36-27 against the Over for game total points (+6.3 Units / 8.81% ROI)
  • 27-36 against the Under for game total points (-12.6 Units / -17.62% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 65 games (-30.78 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 81 games (-25.47 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 65 games (-25.04 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 58 games (-24.05 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the Spread in 21 of their last 58 games (-19.70 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 87 games (-33.91 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 87 games (-25.36 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 87 games (-24.22 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 87 games (-18.57 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 87 games (-18.11 Units / -13% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Nuggets are 44-8 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .597

The Nuggets are 28-11 (.718) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .495

The Nuggets are 29-7 (.806) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

The Nuggets are 27-9 (.750) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575

San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The San Antonio Spurs are 4-30 (.118) when losing the rebounding margin this season — third-worst among NBA teams. The Houston Rockets have averaged 46.5 rebounds per game (2,881 rebounds/62 games) this season — fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Spurs are 3-56 (.051) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .272

The Spurs are 8-22 (.267) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Spurs are 4-30 (.118) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .326

Injury Report: Spurs vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Mar. 10

  • Zach Collins (Spurs): Collins did not play in Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against Houston.
  • Doug McDermott (Spurs): McDermott is probable for Friday’s (Mar.10) game against Denver.
  • Romeo Langford (Spurs): Langford is probable for Friday’s (Mar.10) game against Denver.
  • Jeremy Sochan (Spurs): Sochan is probable for Friday’s (Mar.10) game against Denver.
  • Khem Birch (Spurs): Birch hasn’t played since Dec. 29 against Memphis and remains without a timetable to return.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie has not played this season and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji has not played since Feb. 5 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Vlatko Cancar (Nuggets): Cancar is questionable for Friday’s (Mar.10) game against San Antonio.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,882/9,548) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets have averaged 30.6 assists per game (949 assists/31 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Nuggets are shooting 53% (1,393/2,654) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have averaged 29.2 assists per game (2,102 assists/72 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 28.7 points in the paint per game (4,156 points/145 games) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8

The Spurs have a 21% free throw rate (1,465 free throw attempts/6,827 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

The Spurs have averaged 54.1 points in the paint per game (3,948 points/73 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.0

The Spurs have averaged 1.21 points per shot (3,573 points/2,964 shots) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (893 blocks/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (570 blocks/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have 458 steals this season — tied for 9th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (284 blocks/70 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 31.3 defensive rebounds per game (1,972 rebounds/63 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Spurs have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (248 blocks/63 games) this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Spurs have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (4,787 rebounds/145 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.6

The Spurs have averaged 7.8 steals per game (566 steals/73 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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